基于SE-SBM模型的区域碳排放效率研究——以安徽省为例

A Research on Regional Carbon Emissions Based on SE-SBM Model:a Case Study of Anhui Province

提高碳排放效率是实现“3060”目标的关键。从市域尺度采用超效率SBM模型对2011~2021年期间安徽省16个城市碳排放效率进行测算,并运用Malmquist-Luenberger指数动态分析碳排放绩效的时空动态演变特征。结果表明,各个城市的碳排放效率表现出显著的区域差异性,铜陵等市碳排放效率变化极不稳定,全省碳排放效率在2015~2021年处于上升趋势,研究期前几年的下降程度大导致总体仅呈现小幅上升趋势,其中主要受技术效率的负向影响。因此,在开展节能减排工作时,既要从整体出发建立更有效的协调发展新机制,使整体优势得到最大程度发挥,还要考虑内部的差异,根据ML指数及其指数分解情况因地制宜制定符合各城市自身的碳达峰目标及实施方案,早日实现经济发展与碳排放脱钩。

Improving the efficiency of carbon emissions is the key to achieving the goal of“3060”.A super-efficient SBM model was used to measure the carbon emission efficiency of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2021,and the Malmquist-Luenberger index was applied to analyse the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon emission performance.The results show that the carbon emission efficiency of each city shows significant regional variability,with cities such as Tongling showing extremely unstable changes in carbon emission efficiency,and the province’s carbon emission efficiency is on an upward trend from 2015 to 2021,with a large degree of decline in the first few years of the study period leading to only a small upward trend overall,which is mainly influenced by the negative effect of technical efficiency.Therefore,when carrying out energy conservation and emission reduction work,it is necessary to establish a new mechanism for more effective coordinated development from an overall perspective,so that the overall advantages can be maximised,but also to consider internal differences,and to develop carbon peak targets and implementation plans that are in line with each city’s own local conditions according to the ML index and its index decomposition,so that economic development can be decoupled from carbon emissions at an early date.