基于系统动力学的区域集装箱船舶减排仿真研究

Simulation Study on Emission Reduction of Regional Container Ship Based on System Dynamics

随着航运业的迅速发展,船舶大气污染物排放越趋严重,造成的环境问题引起了国际航运前沿动态社会的广泛重视。为研究港区集装箱船舶节能减排措施的效果,文章以宁波舟山港为例,首先分析影响港区集装箱船舶减排的影响因素,确定经济,能源、环境、船舶以及政策5个系统要素及之间的相互关系,并借助因果关系图展示予以研究,再构建港区集装箱船舶减排的系统动力学流图,拟定减排方案,动态仿真出不同减排方案下的实施效果并进行对比分析。

With the rapid development of shipping industry,the discharge of air pollutants from ships is becoming more and more serious,and the environmental problems caused by it have aroused wide attention of the dynamic society of international shipping frontier.In order to study the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction measures for container ships in the port area,this paper takes Ningbo Zhoushan Port as an example,firstly analyzes the factors affecting the emission reduction of container ships in the port area,determines the five system elements of economy,energy,environment,ships and policies and their mutual relationships,and then studies them with the help of cause-and-effect diagram.Then,the system dynamics flow diagram of container ships in the port area is constructed and emission reduction plans are drawn up.Dynamic simulation of different emission reduction scheme under the implementation effect and comparative analysis.