美国网络威慑战略渐弱化趋势研究

Study on the Weakening Trend of the U.S.Cyber Deterrence Strategy

针对美国自推出“网络威慑”战略以来,仍存在常被网络攻击的形势,概述了美国威慑和网络威慑战略,梳理了美国网络威慑机制方案和存在的问题,以及多方质疑有效性的声音,通过战略文件词频统计、研究类文章统计、国会报告统计、新闻量统计、新闻热度统计等,发现了自2019年以来美国网络威慑战略逐渐弱化的迹象,继而分析了美国由“网络威慑”战略转向“前出防御”“持续交锋”战略,认为美国从“不战而屈人之兵”转向“先发制人”的“微战而屈人之兵”,最后给出简短总结。

In view of the situation of frequent cyberattacks on the U.S.since the launch of the“cyber deterrence”strategy,this paper summarizes the U.S.deterrence and cyber deterrence strategy,reviewing the U.S.cyber deterrence mechanism programs and problems,as well as multi-sectoral opinions questioning its effectiveness.Through strategic document word frequency statistics,research paper statistics,congressional report statistics,news quantity statistics,and news popularity statistics and so on,it find signs of a gradual weakening of the U.S.cyber deterrence strategy since 2019.Then,it analyzes the shift of the U.S.from the“cyber deterrence”strategy to the“defend forward”and“persistent engagement”strategy,argues that the U.S.has changed from“win without war”to“win with micro war”of“strike first to gain the initiative”,and finally concludes with a brief summary.