甘肃省粮食生产变化特征及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Variational Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Gansu Province

甘肃省地处西北内陆腹地,气候干旱自然环境恶劣,随着人口增长带来粮食需求不断增加,另外近年来因为农村劳动力老龄化而导致耕地弃耕撂荒严重,保障粮食安全形势严峻。本文运用灰色关联度模型对甘肃省1978~2018年间粮食生产的时间变动情况、品种结构、空间结构、安全状况的特点以及影响因素进行分析。结果表明,甘肃省的粮食产量受农业劳力、粮食播种面积、有效灌溉面积、农药化肥施用折纯量四个主导因素影响,受灾面积、农业机械总动力两个潜在因素影响。由此可见,甘肃省未来粮食安全生产要在提高农业劳动力数量质量、保障耕地面积、发展节水灌溉农业、引导农户科学施肥等方面改进。

Gansu Province is located in the inland hinterland of northwest China,which has an arid climate and a harsh natural environment,with the growth of population bringing an increase in grain'demand.In addition,in recent years the serious abandonment of farmland due to the aging of the rural labor force,ensuring food security is facing a severe situation.This paper uses the Grey Relational degree model to analyze the temporal variation,variety structure,spatial structure,the characteristics of the security situation,and the influencing factors of grain'production in Gansu Province from 1978 to 2018.The results illustrate that the grain'yield of Gansu province is affected by four dominant factors:the agricultural labor force,the sowing area of grain,the effectively irrigated area,and the discounted amount of pesticide and fertilizer application,and two potential factors:the affected area and total power of the agricultural machinery.Therefore,the future food security production in Gansu Province should be improved in terms of increasing the quantity and number of the agricultural labor force,ensuring the cultivated land area,developing water-saving irrigation agriculture,and guiding farmers to apply fertilizer scientifically.