不同耕作措施下旱地春小麦产量应对气候变化的效应分析

Analysis on the Effect of Spring Wheat Yield on Climate Change in Dryland Under Different Tillage Measures

为定量评估不同耕作措施下气候变化对春小麦产量的影响,以甘肃省定西市安定区李家堡镇大田试验为基础,利用定西市安定区1970~2017年逐日气象数据,运用APSIM模型模拟3种耕作措施(NT免耕、NTS免耕+秸秆覆盖、TS传统耕作+秸秆覆盖)下小麦产量对降水(逐日降水±10%、±5%、±0%)、温度(逐日温度±1、±0.5、±0℃)变化的响应,采用二次多项式回归、单因素分析、通径分析等方法研究验证温度、降水量对旱地春小麦产量的影响。结果发现,3种耕作措施下,春小麦产量模拟值与实测值误差为±15%,模型有效性ME为0.875,说明模型拟合度良好,具有一定适应性;NT、NTS、TS 3种耕作措施下小麦平均产量分别为1856.3、2275.4、2221.0 kg/hm2,免耕+秸秆覆盖耕作方式产量最高,增减产效应总体结果表现为NTS>TS>NT,综合考虑,免耕+秸秆覆盖是黄土高原地区最佳耕作方式。

To quantitatively evaluate the influence of climate change on spring wheat yield under different tillage measures,based on the field experiment in Lijiabao Town,An'ding District,Dingxi City,Gansu Province,using daily meteorological data from 1970 to 2017 in An'ding District,Dingxi City,this paper quantitatively evaluates the influence mechanism of climate change on spring wheat yield under different tillage practices.APSIM model is used to simulate the response of wheat yield to precipitation(daily precipitation±10%,±5%,±0%)and temperature(daily temperature±1,±0.5,±0℃)and sensitivity analysis under three tillage methods,including NT no-tillage,NTS no-tillage+straw mulch,TS traditional tillage+straw mulch.Quadratic polynomial regression,single factor analysis,and path analysis are used to verify the effect of temperature and precipitation on dryland spring wheat yield.The results show that under the three tillage measures,the error between simulated and measured spring wheat yield is within±15%,and the model validity ME is 0.875,indicating that the model has a good fit and had certain adaptability.The average yield of wheat under these three tillage types is 1856.3,2275.4,2221.0 kg/hm2,respectively.The highest yield could be reached under NTS,and the overall effect of increase and decrease was NTS>TS>NT.so no-tillage+straw mulching is the best tillage method in the Loess Plateau area.