双向FDI协调发展对出口国内附加值率的影响——采用跨国面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Coordinated Development of Two-way FDI on Domestic Value-added Rate:Empirical Research based on Transnational Panel Data

一国的外商直接投资(IFDI)与对外直接投资(OFDI)之间存在相互促进的作用,两者高水平的协调发展会产生协同效应,进而强化单向国际投资的经济效应。利用UNCTAD的国际投资数据和TiVA数据库的增加值贸易数据,测算2000—2018年63个经济体的双向FDI协调发展水平(IFDI与OFDI的耦合协调度)和出口国内附加值率,并采用跨国面板数据进行实证检验。基准模型检验表明,双向FDI协调发展整体上具有出口国内附加值率提升效应;影响机制检验显示,双向FDI协调发展可以通过技术创新促进效应、产业结构升级效应和资源配置优化效应提升出口国内附加值率;异质性分析发现,双向FDI协调发展对出口国内附加值率的影响,在发达经济体中显著为正而在发展中经济体中显著为负,在金融发展水平较高经济体中显著为正而在金融发展水平较低经济体中不显著。应坚持“引进来”与“走出去”并重的双向FDI协调发展战略,根据国家发展战略需要采取有针对性策略,以双向FDI协调发展促进对外贸易利得持续增长,并通过国内经济高质量发展实现全球价值链地位不断提升。

Under the background of Global Value Chains,the trend of intra-production specialization makes domestic added value reflect a country’s real gains from exports.Adhering to the strategy of“bringing in”and“going out”,China has been deeply embedded in the global production network through two-way FDI.How to improve domestic value-added rate by two-way FDI is an important issue.However,the existing studies mostly focus on the role of one-way FDI,ignoring the important impact of coordinated development of two-way FDI on the domestic value-added rate.This paper uses the data of IFDI and OFDI in the UNCTAD database to measure the coordinated development degree of two-way FDI by referring to the capacity coupling system model in physics and uses the TiVA database jointly published by OECD-WTO to measure the domestic value-added rate.Then,this paper empirically studies the impact of the coordinated development of two-way FDI on the domestic value-added rate and its internal mechanism based on the panel data of 63 countries(regions)from 2000 to 2018.The results show that the coordinated development of two-way FDI is beneficial to the domestic value-added rate,and this conclusion passes a series of robustness and endogeneity tests.Mechanism tests show that coordinated development of two-way FDI improves domestic value-added rate by promoting innovation,upgrading industrial structure,and optimizing resource allocation.The heterogeneity test shows that the coordinated development of two-way FDI strongly improves the domestic value-added rate of developed countries and countries with high financial levels.Compared with the existing studies,this paper’s contribution may be mainly reflected in the following aspects:firstly,this paper measures the coordinated development level of two-way FDI of 63 countries(regions)from 2000 to 2018 using the data of IFDI and OFDI;secondly,this paper empirically studies the impact of coordinated development of two-way FDI on domestic value-added rate in the framework that IFDI and OFDI are included at the same time,which expands the research of the relationship between international investment and Global Value Chains;thirdly,this paper investigates the influence mechanism of coordinated development of two-way FDI on domestic value-added rate,which helps us to strengthen the understanding of the logical relationship behind them.Our research reveals the relationship and inherent logic between coordinated development of two-way FDI and domestic value-added rate,helps the government to formulate more targeted development policies of“bringing in”and“going out”,and provides a reliable basis for China to make full use of coordinated development of two-way FDI to realize status climbing in Global Value Chains.