基于贝叶斯网络的汽车供应链风险识别与评估

Risk Identification and Evaluation of Automobile Supply Chain Based on Bayesian Network

以近年来汽车召回事件频发以及新冠疫情下汽车芯片短缺为背景,将SCOR模型中的“计划”“采购”“生产”“配送”及“退货”流程和MMEM理论中的“人”“机”“环境”和“管理”要素相结合,提出了二维供应链风险识别方法,构建了基于贝叶斯网络的汽车供应链风险评估模型。并以长三角地区汽车供应链相关企业为实证研究对象,收集风险数据,进行风险评估,并根据评估模型得到当前长三角地区汽车的供应链风险状态,提出了针对性的风险管理建议。

In this paper,we combined the"planning","purchasing","production","delivery"and"return"processes in the SCOR model with the"man","machine","environment"and"management"elements in the MMEM theory,proposed a two-dimensional supply chain risk identification method,and constructed a Bayesian network-based risk assessment model for the automobile supply chain.Next,taking the relevant enterprises on the automobile supply chain in the Yangtze River Delta region as the empirical object,and after collecting the necessary risk data for risk assessment,we obtained the current risk status of the automobile supply chain in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the assessment model,and put forward targeted risk management suggestions.