金融业开放的经济效应:收益、风险及政策应对

The Economic Effects of China's Financial Openness:Benefits,Risks,and Policy Responses

在外部环境高度复杂不确定的背景下,本文通过构建一个包含金融业开放特征的动态随机一般均衡模型,在刻画中国经济动态转型特征的基础上,全面细致地分析和评估了金融业开放的收益、风险以及政策应对。研究表明,金融业开放带来的收益与风险会随经济体所处风险状态的改变而发生变化,扩大金融业开放可以改善国内信贷条件而带来正向收益,但同时也会放大外部冲击对国内金融稳定与宏观经济的负面影响而造成新的风险。综合来看,随着金融业开放力度的增大,开放的社会福利净收益呈现出“倒U型”特征。进一步地,宏观审慎监管与外汇干预政策均能有效抑制外部冲击下的宏观经济波动,但从动态转移路径来看会削减金融业开放的收益,而且政策实施的净收益受到外部风险强度的影响。因此,需要根据不同时期外部环境的风险特征合理安排金融业开放进度,并选择相配套的调控政策,在获得开放收益的同时,严防外部风险的跨境传染。

Considering the ever-changing and dynamic nature of China's economy,this paper presents a comprehensive and detailed analysis aimed at assessing the benefits,risks,and policy responses associated with the financial openness of China's economy in a highly intricate and uncertain external environment.Utilizing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates the characteristics of financial openness,this study reveals that the benefits and risks linked with the financial openness exhibit fluctuations depending on the risk states of the economy.The increase of financial openness yields favorable outcomes by enhancing domestic credit conditions,yet it also amplifies the adverse impacts of external shocks on domestic financial stability and macroeconomic factors,thereby introducing new risks.Generally,the net welfare gains derived from financial openness follow an inverted U-shaped trajectory as efforts to liberalize the financial sector intensify.Furthermore,the implementation of macro-prudential regulations and foreign exchange intervention policies demonstrates efficacy in mitigating macroeconomic volatility amidst external shocks.However,these policies also curtail the benefits of financial openness in terms of transitional dynamics.The net gains arising from these policies are influenced by the intensity of external risks.Therefore,a judicious pace of financial openness is imperative,based on the risk characteristics of the external environment at different time points.Additionally,it is crucial to select appropriate regulatory policies to prevent the cross-border contagion of external risks while maintaining the benefits of financial openness.