进口对工资的影响研究——基于供应链的视角

Research on the Impact of Imports on Wages--From the Perspective of Supply Chain

本文基于OECD-ICIO全球区域间投入—产出数据库,在测算进口的直接竞争渠道和供应链上下游传导渠道的基础上,采用长差分模型研究了进口与工资的关系。研究发现,进口的直接竞争渠道对劳动者工资产生显著的负向影响,中间品进口通过供应链下游传导渠道对工资产生显著正向影响,而进口通过供应链上游传导渠道仅对低技能劳动者工资存在显著负向影响。机制检验表明,进口的直接竞争渠道对工资的负向冲击主要影响了低技能劳动者,使该类劳动者的工资下降更快。中间品进口的供应链下游传导渠道主要通过生产规模的扩大效应提升了工资水平,特别是通过促进非技术前沿企业的生产规模扩大,增加了对低技能劳动者的需求,带来了该类劳动者工资的更快上升。中间品进口的下游传导渠道缓解了进口的直接竞争渠道和上游传导渠道对低技能劳动者工资的负向影响。本研究为促进供应链上劳动者工资均衡增长和实现共同富裕提供了重要依据。

This paper delves into the relationship between imports and wages employing a long-difference model,utilizing the OECD-ICIO inter-country input-output database to quantify import exposure through three channels:direct competition,downstream effect,and upstream effect.Empirical results show that the direct competition of imports has a significantly negative impact on wages.The downstream effect of intermediate imports exhibits a significantly positive impact on wage levels,while the upstream effect of imports has a significantly negative influence solely on wages of low-skilled workers.Mechanism tests reveal that the adverse consequences of import competition predominantly affect low-skilled workers,thereby inducing a more rapid decline in their wages.Conversely,the downstream effect of intermediate imports primarily brings the effect of scale,propelling non-technical frontier enterprises to expand their production scales.As a result,the wages of low-skilled workers experience substantial growth.The downstream effect of intermediate imports mitigates the detrimental influence of the direct competition and upstream effect of imports on the wages of low-skilled workers.This study provides an important foundation for promoting balanced wage growth in the supply chain and realizing common prosperity.