谁更需要生育政策支持:角色冲突视角下的生育率下降与职业结构优化

Who Needs More Fertility Policy Support?Fertility Decline from the Perspective of Role Conflict and Optimization of Occupational Structure

运用全国人口普查数据、第三期中国妇女社会地位调查数据,首次系统分析了2000~2020年中国不同职业类型女性活产子女数的变化趋势及其与职业结构优化之间的关系。研究发现,分职业类型女性平均活产子女数与职业女性总体平均活产子女数“一增一减”的变化趋势,与城镇化、工业化、现代化进程中女性职业结构的优化有关;不同职业类型女性的平均活产子女数及其增幅差异显著,其中,女性专技/办事人员的平均活产子女数最少且增幅最小,其未能实现的生育数量最多,生育对其工作与家庭相互冲突的影响最严重。在深入实施科教兴国战略、人才强国战略以及优化人口发展战略的过程中,女性专技/办事人员既是最需要生育政策支持的群体,也是最有潜力提高生育水平的群体,相关生育政策应加强对此类职业女性的支持力度。

Using data from national population censuses and the 3rd survey on Chinese women's social status,this study systemically analyzes the relationship between women's number of live births by occupation from 2000 to 2020 and the optimization of their occupation structure.Occupation-specific analysis shows an increase in women's number of live births while a decrease in overall trend.This seeming conflict is resulted from the continuous optimization of female occupation structure throughout China's urbanization,industrialization,and modernization.Further,the increase in the number of live births differs across occupation categories.Female specialists,technicians,and clerical personnel have had the fewest number of live births and suffered the most from work-family conflicts.Future policies should provide more support to them to satisfy their needs for giving birth.