顾及耕地占补平衡的土地利用变化及其效应多情景模拟

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Its Effects Under Requisition-Compensation Balance of Arable Land

占补平衡是中国耕地保护的重要措施之一。在耕地保护政策从传统数量规模保护为主向数量-质量-生态一体化保护的发展过程中,较少有研究系统地分析不同占补平衡策略的未来潜在影响作用。以中国山东省招远市为例,构建了顾及耕地占补平衡策略的多情景土地利用变化模拟模型,通过设计基准情景、耕地数量保护、耕地数量-质量保护、耕地数量-生态保护和耕地数量-质量-生态保护5个情景,分析2030年不同耕地保护策略下耕地规模、生产力和生境质量的演化规律。结果表明,相较于基准情景,耕地占补平衡情景下耕地数量平均提高了7.2%,粮食产量、生境质量分别平均提升了0.63%和0.70%,其中耕地数量-质量-生态保护情景下粮食产量和生境质量均高于平均水平。因此,耕地数量-质量-生态保护情景更有利于多种目标的协同优化。本研究为系统地对比评估多种占补平衡策略,优化耕地保护政策提供了方法支持。

Objectives:The requisition-compensation balance is one of the important measures for farmland protection in China.During the development of cultivated land protection policies from traditional quantity protection to quantity-quality-ecology integration protection,few studies have examined future potential impacts of different requisition-compensation balance policies.Methods:We take Zhaoyuan City,Shandong Province as an example to construct a multi-scenario simulation model of land use change incorporating requisition-compensation balance of arable land,design five simulation scenarios,namely,baseline scenario,quantity protection of cultivated land,quantity-quality protection,quantity-ecological protection and quantity-quality-ecological protection.Then we analyze the changes in quantity,productivity and habitat quality of arable land in 2030 under different protection strategies.Results:The results show that the requisition-compensation balance policies will increase the quantity,grain yield and habitat quality of cultivated land by 7.2%,0.63% and 0.70% on average compared with the baseline scenario.In the quantityquality-ecological protection scenario,grain yield and habitat quality are likely to be higher than those in other scenarios,and their trade-off relationships will be better reconciled.Conclusions:This work will provide solid support for evaluation of various requisition-compensation balance strategies and adjustment of farmland protection policies.