货币政策与企业金融化的动态机制及其宏观效应

The Dynamic Mechanism of Monetary Policy and Financialization of Corporates and Its Macro Effects

当前经济金融化现象日益严重,宏观经济受到新冠肺炎疫情冲击后更加复杂多变,货币政策的实体经济效应趋于弱化。基于此,本文从企业金融化视角,借助TVP-FAVAR模型研究中国货币政策宏观经济动态效应及其有效性。研究表明:企业金融化是货币政策宏观经济效应的重要传导机制,且具有时变效应;宽松货币政策对企业金融化的影响存在期限特征,企业金融化的“预防性储蓄动机”和“投机套利动机”随期限而改变;企业金融化显著影响货币政策动态调控效果;与2008年全球金融危机时期相比,新冠肺炎疫情下货币政策与企业金融化动态机制的宏观效应更为显著。本文主要创新在于从企业金融化的关键机制诠释货币政策的宏观经济时变效应,为抑制过度企业金融化、防范金融风险提供参考借鉴,且有助于提高货币政策的有效性和灵活性。

The current phenomenon of financialization of the economy has become increasingly serious,the macroeconomy has become more complex and volatile after the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,and the real economic effect of monetary policy tends to weaken.Based on this,this article studies the macroeconomic dynamic effects of monetary policy and its effectiveness in China from the perspective of corporate financialization with the help of TVP-FAVAR model.The study shows that:corporate financialization is an important transmission mechanism of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy with time-varying effects;the effects of accommodative monetary policy on corporate financialization have term characteristics,and the'precautionary saving motive'and'speculative arbitrage motive'of corporate financialization change with maturity;corporate financialization significantly affects the dynamic regulatory effect of monetary policy;the macro effects of monetary policy and the dynamic mechanism of corporate financialization are more significant under the COVID-19 epidemic than during the 2008 global financial crisis.The main innovation of this article is to interpret the macroeconomic time-varying effects of monetary policy from the key mechanisms of corporate financialization,which provides a reference for restraining excessive financialization of enterprises and preventing financial risks,and helps to improve the effectiveness and flexibility of monetary policy.