天津市“十三五”期间O_(3)污染特征和驱动因子

Characteristics and Driving Factors of O_(3)Pollution During 13th Five-Year Period in Tianjin

为了解“十三五”期间天津市O_(3)污染特征和驱动因素,基于2016~2020年高时空分辨率的在线监测数据,利用空间自相关、空间热点分析和STIRPAT模型分析了O_(3)污染空间分布、聚集特征和驱动因子.结果表明,2016~2020年天津市O_(3)浓度变化特征呈现污染发生时间点提前和污染范围扩大的趋势.6~10月O_(3)污染分布具有显著聚集性,高值-高值聚集区主要为市内六区、北辰区、津南区和静海区,O_(3)浓度在西南部地区形成高值热点聚集区,在东北部地区形成低值冷点聚集区.气温、小风百分率和日照时数等气象因子与NOx排放量、VOCs排放量和机动车保有量等社会因子对O_(3)浓度有显著性影响,综合驱动STIRPAT模型的回归拟合效果比单一气象因子或社会因子模型更好.为科学高效地开展“十四五”期间O_(3)污染的防治,在关注气象条件基础上,在“双碳”目标的约束下,天津市应进一步提升钢铁、石化、火电和建材等行业全过程排放的绩效水平,引导企业清洁化提升改造、转型升级和绿色发展,减少企业VOCs和NOx的排放量,同时进一步控制燃油机动车保有量的增加,大力推广新能源机动车,减少机动车尾气的排放.

The spatial distribution,accumulation features,and driving factors of O_(3)pollution were analyzed using spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis and the STIRPAT model based on the high spatiotemporal resolution online monitoring data from 2016 to 2020 in Tianjin.The results showed that the variation characteristics of O_(3)concentration in Tianjin from 2016 to 2020 had the trend of pollution occurring in advance and the scope of the pollution expanding.The distribution of O_(3)pollution showed significant aggregation from June to October.High-high value clustering areas included six urban districts,Beichen District,Jinnan District,and Jinghai District.O_(3)concentration formed high value hot spots in the southwest and low value cold spots in the northeast.Meteorological factors such as temperature,breeze percentage,and sunshine duration,as well as social factors such as NOx emission,VOCs emission,and motor vehicle ownership had significant effects on O_(3)concentration.The regression fitting effect of the integrated drive STIRPAT model was better than that of the single meteorological factor or social factor models.In order to promote scientific and efficient prevention and control of ozone pollution during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,meteorological conditions require attention;under the goal of“peaking carbon dioxide emissions and achieving carbon neutrality,”it is necessary for Tianjin to further improve the emission performance of steel,petrochemicals,thermal power,building materials,and other industries,Additionally,clean upgrading,transformation,and green development should be guided for enterprises to reduce VOCs and NOx emissions.At same time,the increase in fuel vehicle numbers should be controlled,and new energy vehicles should be vigorously promoted to reduce vehicle emissions.