摘要
协调推进县域城镇化与碳收支平衡是建设美丽中国的迫切需要。已有文献大多局限于城镇化对碳排放或碳汇的单一影响,对碳收支平衡的探讨相对欠缺。本文结合土地利用数据和县域社会经济数据,揭示1980—2020年环鄱阳湖区县域城镇化与碳收支平衡的时空分异特征,进而运用时空地理加权回归,从人口城镇化、经济城镇化和土地城镇化三个维度探究县域城镇化对碳收支平衡的影响。结果表明:①2010年以后,环鄱阳湖区整体碳排放量大于碳吸收量,研究区整体由碳汇区逐渐转变为碳源区。②环鄱阳湖区县域碳收支平衡比不断缩小,碳赤字县域不断增加,且碳赤字区逐渐向西侧环湖边缘区扩散。③整体上,环鄱阳湖区县域城镇化综合水平对碳收支平衡比具有负向影响,但影响程度逐渐减弱。人口城镇化对碳收支平衡比的负向影响最大,土地城镇化次之,而经济城镇化对碳收支平衡比具有显著的正向影响。④此外,政府干预程度和技术发展水平的影响存在空间异质性,经济发展水平和能源结构对研究区县域碳收支平衡比的负向影响逐渐增强,对外开放水平对研究区碳收支平衡比的影响存在两极分化现象。
It is urgent to coordinate the urbanization of counties and the carbon budget balance to build a beautiful China.Most of the existing literature is limited to the single impact of urbanization on carbon emissions or carbon sinks.Based on land use data and county socioeconomic data,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal differentiation between urbanization and carbon balance in the counties around the Poyang Lake region from 1980 to 2020,and then explores the impact of urbanization on carbon balance in three dimensions:population urbanization,economic urbanization and land urbanization.The results show that:(1)Starting from 2010,the overall carbon emissions have exceeded the carbon absorption.The research area has gradually shifted from being a carbon sink to becoming a carbon source.(2)The carbon balance ratio is continuously shrinking,with an increasing number of counties experiencing a carbon deficit.Additionally,the carbon deficit zones are gradually expanding towards the western edge of the lake's surrounding areas.(3)Overall,the comprehensive level of urbanization in the counties surrounding the Poyang Lake has a negative impact on the carbon balance ratio,although the degree of influence is gradually diminishing.Population urbanization has the greatest negative impact on the carbon balance ratio,followed by land urbanization,while economic urbanization has a significant positive impact on the carbon balance ratio.(4)Furthermore,there is spatial heterogeneity in the impact of government intervention and technological development.The negative impact of economic development level and energy structure on the carbon balance ratio in the counties surrounding the research area is gradually increasing.The impact of the level of openness to the outside world on the carbon balance ratio exhibits a polarizing phenomenon.
作者
李硕硕
李汝资
刘耀彬
邓伟凤
刘澄浩
魏国恩
LI Shuoshuo;LI Ruzi;LIU Yaobin;DENGWeifeng;LIU Chenghao;WEI Guoen(School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;College of Resources and Environment,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第8期2245-2263,共19页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(4227120、42101168)。
关键词
县域城镇化
碳收支
时空差异
环鄱阳湖区
时空地理加权回归
county urbanization
carbon budget
spatio-temporal differentiation
Poyang Lake region
geographically and temporally weighted regression