近代中美贸易结构及其演化(1902-1948)

The Structure of Sino-US Trade and Its Evolution:1902-1948

20世纪以来中美贸易增长呈加速趋势,最迟在1932年美国已成为中国的第一大贸易对象国,中美贸易结构及其演化成为近代中国外贸结构趋势性变化的缩影。在尽可能囊括近代中美贸易的全部商品并重建贸易品三级分类的基础上,更为详尽准确的进出口贸易结构显示,近代中美贸易存在两个不同的发展阶段和两个相异的演化趋势。在1932-1934年之前,中美贸易结构一度呈优化趋势,两国处在不同的产业发展阶段,得以实现各自的比较优势和比较收益;在1932-1934年之后,中国未能在国际产业竞争中及时完成工业化,有成为资源出口国和工业品进口国的趋势,贸易结构优化的进程面临中断。从大国经济关系的视角而言,近代中美贸易结构及其演化展现出中国在近代经济全球化和国际竞争中的阶段性特征和趋势性表现。

The growth of trade between China and the United States has been accelerating since the 20th century,and by 1932 at the latest,the United States became the largest trading partner of China.The structure of Sino-US trade and its evolution have become a microcosm of the trend changes in modern China's foreign trade structure.On the basis of including all the goods in modern Sino-US trade as much as possible and reconstructing the three-level classification of trade products,a more detailed and accurate trade structure shows that there are two different development stages and two distinct evolutionary trends in modern Sino-US trade.Before 1932-1934,the trade structure between China and the United States showed an optimization trend,and the two countries were in different stages of industrial development,enabling them to achieve their respective comparative advantages and benefits.After 1932-1934,China failed to complete industrialization in a timely manner in international industrial competition,and there was a trend towards becoming a resource exporting country and an industrial importing country.The process of optimizing trade structure was facing interruption.From the perspective of major country economic relations,the modern Sino-US trade structure and its evolution demonstrate China's phased characteristics and trend performance in modern economic globalization and international competition.