区域抗旱能力评价研究进展

Research progress on evaluation of regional drought resistance capacity

干旱灾害是中国最主要的自然灾害之一,对中国经济社会高质量发展带来了重大威胁。开展区域抗旱能力评价,对抵御干旱灾害风险开展抗旱减灾工作具有重要的意义。在阐述抗旱能力概念与内涵的基础上,回顾了目前区域抗旱能力评价的两类方法:基于构成要素多指标的综合评价法和基于水量供需关系的定量评价法;总结了现有评价方法存在的3个不足:即理论体系与指标选取问题、评价结果的不确定性问题、评价结果的适用性问题。指出未来研究应注重评价指标体系基础数据的准确性与合理性,加强智能评价方法研究,运用多学科方法开展动态评价。研究成果可为区域抗旱减灾研究提供支撑。

Drought is one of the most critical natural disasters in China,significantly threatening the country s high-quality economic and social development.The evaluation of regional drought resistance capacity is of great importance for mitigating the risks associated with drought disasters and effectively implementing drought resistance and disaster reduction work.This paper introduces the concept and connotation of drought resistance.Two types of methods for evaluating regional drought resistance capacity are also systematically reviewed,namely a comprehensive evaluation based on multiple indicators of constituent elements and a quantitative evaluation based on the relationship between water supply and demand.The shortcomings of existing evaluation methods are also discussed,namely determination of evaluation methodology and indicators,uncertainty as well as adaptability of evaluation results.It is proposed that future research should improve the accuracy and rationality of the basic data of the evaluation index system,strengthen researches on intelligent evaluation methods,and employ multidisciplinary approaches to carry out dynamic evaluations.These measures will support regional drought resistance and disaster reduction research.