美俄战略稳定与欧洲安全

Strategic Stability between America and Russia andIts Impact on European Security

美俄战略稳定具有理论与实践的双重内涵,其对欧洲安全具有重要影响。冷战结束以来,美俄虽拥有大体均衡的核武库,战略稳定性却陷入螺旋下降之困局。这一困局主要源于:双方竞相追求优势,破坏了军备竞赛稳定性;相互不断加强战略威慑,动摇了危机稳定性;美俄战略竞争削弱了战略互信。在美俄战略稳定不断削弱的背景下,欧洲安全态势渐趋恶化:美俄欧等主要战略力量间权力失衡;美欧联合打压俄罗斯,使战略三角的不平衡加剧;在战略武器方面,欧洲相对于美俄的脆弱性凸显;在地区危机中,欧洲内部的战略分歧加剧;各方主导的安全机制激烈竞争,甚至走向对抗。在2022年俄乌冲突爆发的背景下,构建美俄战略稳定与欧洲安全的合理路径,当是首先妥善处理欧洲地区安全危机,在此前提下重构美俄军备控制进程及核查机制,并逐渐构建欧洲安全的整体制度保障,最终重塑稳定平衡的美俄欧关系。

The strategic stability between America and Russia has a dual connotation of theory and practice, which has a significant impact on European security. Since the end of the Cold War, although the United States and Russia have a roughly balanced nuclear arsenal, their strategic stability has witnessed downward spiral. This decline mainly stems from the fact that the competing pursuit of advantages by both sides has destabilized the arms race, continuously strengthened strategic deterrence has shaken the stability of the crisis, and at the same time, strategic competition between the United States and Russia has weakened strategic mutual trust. Against the backdrop of the weakening strategic stability of the United States and Russia, the security situation in Europe is gradually deteriorating. This is evident in the power imbalance between major strategic forces such as the United States, Russia, and Europe. Additionally, the joint crackdown on Russia by the United States and Europe exacerbates the imbalance in the strategic triangle. In terms of strategic weapons, Europe’s vulnerability relative to the United States and Russia is highlighted. Meanwhile, in regional crises, strategic differences within Europe have intensified. The security mechanism led by all parties is fiercely competitive and even confrontational. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, building a reasonable path for U.S.-Russian strategic stability and European security necessitates several steps. First, it requires a proper handling of the security crisis in Europe. On this premise, the U.S.-Russian arms control process and verification mechanism should be restructured. Gradually, a comprehensive institutional assurance for European security should be constructed, and ultimately reshaping a stable and balanced U.S.-Russian-European relationship.