低生育水平下中国育龄家庭的规模与变动

Childbearing-age Families under Low Fertility Level in China:Size and Change

基于中国家庭追踪调查2010—2020年数据获得的结构相关信息进行时间回归拟合,利用全国人口普查和人口抽样调查数据,估算低生育水平时期中国育龄家庭的规模和比例发现,育龄家庭在规模和变动趋势上与全国家庭户的特点有所不同。1993年以来,中国育龄家庭规模为2.1亿~2.5亿户,在家庭户中所占比例为44%~73%,规模及占比随时间推移均呈现较为明显的下降态势。“育龄家庭”是对既有研究中常用的“家庭”概念在生育维度的聚焦,有助于进一步揭示中国家庭生育动力弱化的现实,深入解释出生人口数不断下滑的内在原因。

Based on the structural information obtained from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data from 2010 to 2020,and using data from the national census and population sampling surveys,this study estimates the size and proportion of childbearing-age families in China during the period of low fertility levels.It is found that the size and trend of childbearing-age families differ from those of the overall household population.Since 1993,the size of childbearing-age families in China has ranged from 210 to 250 million households,accounting for 44%to 73%of all households.Both the size and proportion have shown a significant downward trend over time.“Childbearing-age families”focuses on the dimension of fertility in the commonly used concept of“family”in existing research,which helps to further reveal the reality of weakened fertility dynamics in Chinese households and provide a deeper understanding of the underlying reasons for the continuous decline in the birth rate.