中国女性生育意愿的变动特征:社会角色视角下的观察

Changing Characteristics of Chinese Women’s Fertility Intentions:A Social Role Perspective

20世纪90年代开始,中国人口的总和生育率开始逐渐低于更替水平,代表生育意愿最高阈值的理想子女数也在20世纪90年代开始低于更替水平,中国真正进入低生育时代。随着世代更替,相较于年长一代的女性,新生代的中国育龄女性在生育意愿上表现出新的特征。首先,生育意愿的内涵在新生代的女性中发生嬗变,从家庭导向为主向个人导向为主转变。其次,新生代女性存在明显的生育计划推迟现象,导致生育意愿在期望层次和计划层次出现显著差异。再次,生育意愿的影响因素也发生明显改变,成本约束和内在动机的作用逐渐凸显。借助母职共识和角色不一致的概念,通过构建社会角色和生育意愿的关联路径,基于主观规范和成本分担的主客观机制,可以从社会角色的视角阐释中国新生代女性生育意愿变动的形成机制。其政策启示在于,生育友好型社会的构建须结合女性社会角色的转变特征进行考虑,破解低生育困局的关键在于弥补当前女性角色与母职共识之间的鸿沟,减少角色不一致给女性带来的惩罚。

Since the 1990s,the total fertility rate in Chinese society has gradually fallen below replacement level,and the desired number of children,representing the highest threshold of fertility intentions,has also been below replacement level since the 1990s,marking the entry into a low fertility era.With generational changes,the new generation of childbearing-age women in China exhibit new characteristics in terms of fertility intentions.Firstly,the connotation of fertility intentions has shifted from being primarily family-oriented to being primarily individual-oriented among the new generation of women.Secondly,there is a clear phenomenon of delayed fertility planning among the new generation of women,leading to significant differences in fertility intentions between desired and planned levels.Lastly,the factors influencing fertility intentions have also undergone significant changes,with the role of cost constraints and intrinsic motivations becoming more prominent.By utilizing the concepts of maternal consensus and role inconsistency,and by constructing the association path between social roles and fertility intentions,based on subjective norms and cost-sharing mechanisms,the formation mechanism of fertility intention changes among the new generation of Chinese women can be explained from a social role perspective.The policy implication is that the construction of a fertility-friendly society needs to take into account the changing characteristics of women’s social roles.The key to addressing the low fertility dilemma lies in bridging the gap between current female roles and maternal consensus,and reducing the penalties brought to women by role inconsistency.