“能耗双控”转“碳双控”背景下的浙江省减煤路径研究

Research on the coal reduction path in Zhejiang Province under the background of transforming“Amount and Intensity Control of Energy Consumption”to“Amount and Intensity Control of Carbon Emission”

以浙江省发电、供热、水泥、钢铁、化工等重点用煤行业为研究对象,构建“自下而上”的煤炭消费预测模型,考虑未来各行业发展趋势、能源结构调整、能效水平提升等关键因素,对不同情景下浙江省煤炭消费量、减煤路径等进行预测与分析。基于分析与讨论,对浙江省发电、供热、水泥、钢铁、化工等行业提出了结构、技术、管理减煤的路径,并形成了调整煤炭消费总量控制机制、将发电供热行业作为减煤重点、削减工业行业原料用煤等政策建议。

Key coal-using industries such as power generation,heating,cement,steel and chemical industries in Zhejiang Province were taken as research objects,a“bottom-up”prediction model of coal consumption was constructed,and key factors such as future development trends of various industries,energy restructuring and energy efficiency improvement were considered to forecast and analyze coal consumption and coal reduction paths in Zhejiang Province under different scenarios.Based on the analysis and discussion,the paths of structural coal reduction,technical coal reduction and management coal reduction were proposed for industries such as power generation,heating,cement,steel and chemical industries in Zhejiang Province,and policy recommendations were formed to adjust the total coal consumption control mechanism,take the power generation and heating industries as the focus of coal reduction,and reduce the coal used for raw materials in industrial industries.