粮食安全视角下地缘政治风险对中国粮食贸易的影响分析

The impact of geopolitical risks on China's grain trade from the perspective of food security

基于2001年1月—2022年8月中国主要粮食进出口贸易月度数据及地缘政治风险指数,采用分位回归和VAR模型分析了地缘政治风险对粮食贸易的影响。研究结果表明:①地缘政治风险对粮食进口贸易主要表现为负影响,且冲击持续时间均较长,1年左右趋于平稳。其中,大豆、玉米和小麦受到地缘政治风险的冲击较大,大米受地缘政治风险影响最小。②地缘政治风险对粮食出口的影响是异质的,但主要表现为正向影响。其中,小麦受影响最大,大米受影响最小。建议统筹国内国外两个市场,降低粮食进口依赖度,倡导粮食生产多元化,以保障国内粮食安全。

Based on the monthly data of major grain import and export trade and the geopolitical risk index of China from December 2001 to August 2022,this paper employed the quantile regression and VAR model to analyze the impact of geopolitical risk on grain trade in China.The results were as follows:Firstly,geopolitical risks mainly exhibited a negative impact on grain import trade,and the duration of the shocks was relatively long,leveling off at about one year.Among them,soybean,corn,and wheat were more affected by geopolitical risks,and rice was least affected by geopolitical risks.Secondly,the impact of geopolitical risk on grain exports was heterogeneous,but mainly manifested itself in a positive way.Among them,wheat was the most affected and rice was the least affected.It was recommended to coordinate both domestic and foreign markets,reduce grain import dependence,and advocate grain production diversification to ensure domestic food security.