基于概率方法的地震灾害风险区划

Study on Seismic Disaster Risk Zoning Method with Probability Theory

为了解决传统地震灾害风险区划中采用风险程度指数表达区划结果造成的指标含义不明确问题,一种基于概率理论的地震灾害风险区划方法被采用。它利用概率理论将在各自领域得到成熟发展的地震安全性评价技术和结构易损性分析技术联系起来,通过计算不同年超越概率地震危险造成的潜在经济损失年度期望来评价地震灾害风险。利用这一方法,以辽宁省老震区的农村农居建筑作为评估对象,展示了对于具有不确定性的地震灾害风险如何采用明确的经济指标进行量化评估。在更多的结构易损性参数支持下,这种方法可以被扩展应用在城市地震灾害风险区划中。

A method of seismic disaster risk zoning based on probability theory was adopted to solve the problem of unclear meaning caused by the risk degree index expression in traditional methods.This method combined the mature seismic hazard analysis and structural vulnerability by probability theory.The seismic disaster risk was evaluated by calculating the annual mean value of potential economic loss caused by earth⁃quake hazard with different exceedance probability.Using this method,the rural residential buildings in the Liaoning Old Earthquake Area(LNOEA)were taken as the evaluation object to show how to evaluate the uncertain seismic disaster risk by the clear economic indicators.This method can be extended to urban seis⁃mic disaster risk zoning with more structural vulnerability parameters.