我国老年人口死亡率分布及变化特征——基于近四次人口普查死亡人口数据分析

Distribution and Change Characteristics of Mortality of Elderly Population in China:Based on Mortality Data from the Last Four Censuses

人口死亡率属大数据中的小数字,其对普查数据敏感、要求高。户籍死亡登记的数据难以使用,由于民族文化及数据质量等原因,老人死亡率研究很少得到社会的青睐。但死亡数据是计算平均预期寿命的基础,是人口再生产的重要指标。随着人口老龄化的发展,及普查数据的增多和普查数据质量的改善,我国老年人口死亡数据逐步获得专家重视。老年人口死亡率随年龄、性别、城乡分布及时间变化有无规律可循,历次普查中老年人口死亡率调查误差,都是社会关心的问题。综合使用我国“五普”至“七普”老年人口死亡率数据,用传统的相关、回归分析及logit模型分析方法进行了探索,获得如下结论:近20年我国死亡人口中老年人口所占比重越来越大;死亡人口年龄中位数不断提高;高龄老人死亡率下降速度快于中低龄老人及年轻人。“七普”中我国60—95岁男女老人和市镇乡老人死亡率,通过logit变换后,随年龄呈高度线性相关关系。近30年我国60—95岁老年人口死亡水平参数随时间呈线性变化,死亡参数α不断上升,参数β缓慢下降;女性死亡率参数及参数α变化规律更为明显,由此预测了2030年、2040年老年人口死亡率。“七普”的老人死亡人口数量登记调查质量高,“六普”数据次之;女性登记调查质量高于男性。各地区分析显示,人均GDP高的地区,60(80)岁及以上老人死亡占比高;而人均GDP与各地粗死亡率线性相关关系不明显。“七普”中我国31地区老人死亡率,可分为两大类和一个散类。

The population mortality is a small number of large data,which is sensitive to census data and requires high requirements.It is difficult to use the data of household registration of death.Due to the reasons of ethnic culture and data quality,the research on the mortality of the elderly is rarely favored by the society.However,death data is the basis for calculating average life expectancy and is also an important indicator of population reproduction.With the aging of the population,the increase of census data and the improvement of census data quality,the death data of the elderly population in our country gradually gain experts’attention.The mortality rate of the elderly population varies with age,sex,urban and rural distribution,and with time.The survey error of death rate of elderly population in the previous censuses is a problem of social concern.In this paper,the mortality data of elderly population from the fifth census to the seventh census are comprehensively used,and the traditional correlation,regression analysis and logit model analysis methods are used to explore.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)In the past 20 years,the proportion of the elderly population dying is increasing.Meanwhile,the median age of the death population was increasing.The mortality rate of the elderly aged 80 and above decreased faster than that of the elderly aged 60 to 79 and the young.(2)In the seventh population census,the mortality rate of male and female aged 60 to 95,as well as the mortality rate of the elderly living in cities,towns and villages showed a highly linear correlation with age after logit transformation.(3)In the past 30 years,the death level parameters of the 60-95-year-old population had linear changes with time,where the death parameterαincreased and the death parameterβdecreased slowly.The changes of female mortality parameter and parameterαare more obvious,which predicts the elderly mortality in 2030 and 2040.(4)The quality of registration survey of the elderly death population was high in the seventh census data,followed by the sixth census data;The quality of female registration survey was higher than that of male.(5)According to the analysis of different regions in China,the mortality rate of the elderly aged 60(80)and above is higher in regions with high per capita GDP.The linear correlation between GDPs per capita and crude death rate is not obvious.(6)The mortality rate of the elderly in 31 areas of China can be divided into two categories and one discrete category according to the seventh census.