相对贫困视角下中国经济增长的益贫性研究

The Pro-poor Growth of China from the Perspective of Relative Poverty

益贫性衡量了贫困群体在经济增长中的受益程度。经济增长主要通过提高居民整体收入(收入效应)和改善居民收入分配方式(分配效应)这两种途径来减少贫困,而贫困群体具有弱质性,未必能随着经济发展而同时发展。经济发展的益贫性越高,经济增长越有利于贫困群体,在既定的经济增长率下,贫困群体收入的改善程度就越高,经济发展模式就越包容。利用中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),运用图形法、假设检验法、指数法,在相对贫困视角下分析并检验了2010—2018年中国经济增长的益贫性。研究发现,中国整体上实现了益贫式增长,但在细分的各阶段上,其益贫的程度略有不同。2010—2012、2012—2014年实现的是传统涓滴式发展,虽然贫困率降低了,但贫困群体收入的增长要慢于非贫困群体,经济增长更有利于中、高收入群体收入增长。2014—2016年实现了高度益贫的发展,低收入群体的收入增长最快,益贫性最高,不仅经济增长所带来的收入效应减少了贫困,分配效应也进一步减少了贫困。2016—2018年也实现了益贫式增长,但益贫程度有所放缓。减贫主要通过经济增长的收入效应来实现,其减贫贡献度超过80%。2014年后分配效应在农村地区的减贫作用变大,收入分配状况明显改善。2012—2018年整体上实现了一阶相对益贫和二阶相对益贫,贫困群体的收入增长率显著高于整体平均收入的增长率。

Pro-poorness measures the extent to which the poor benefit from economic growth.Economic growth reduces poverty mainly by raising the overall income of the population(income effect)and improving the way the income of the population is distributed(distributional effect),both of which are weak in nature and may not develop simultaneously with economic development.The higher the pro-poorness of economic development,the more favorable economic growth is to the poor group,the higher the improvement of the income of the poor group under a given economic growth rate,and the more inclusive the economic development model.Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper analyzes the pro-poorness of China’s economic growth in the decade from 2010 to 2018 under a relative poverty perspective using graphical method,hypothesis testing and index method.The study finds that China has achieved pro-poor growth,but the degree of pro-poorness varies slightly at the subdivided stages.In 2010-2012 and 2012-2014,traditional trickle-down development was achieved.Although the poverty rate decreased,the income growth of the poor group was slower than that of the non-poor group,and the economic growth was more favorable to the middle and high income groups.In 2014-2016,a highly pro-poor development was achieved,with the fastest income growth and the highest pro-poorness among low-income groups.Not only did the income effect from economic growth reduce poverty,but also the distributional effect further reduced poverty the most.In 2016-2018,pro-poor growth was also achieved,but the degree of pro-poorness slowed down.Poverty reduction was mainly achieved through the income effect of economic growth,which contributed more than 80%to poverty reduction.The distributional effect became greater in rural areas after 2014,and income distribution improved significantly.In 2012-2018,the first-order relative pro-poorness and the second-order relative pro-poorness were achieved overall,and the income growth rate of the poor group was significantly higher than the overall average income growth rate.