当代中国地区间人口迁移的基本格局及变化趋势

Basic Structure and Changing Trends of Inter-regional Migration in Contemporary China

把基于出生地、五年前常住地、户口登记地的人口迁移分别定义为“终身迁移”、“期间迁移”和“人户分离迁移”,在释明各自属性特征的基础上,定量分析了中国近40年来地区间人口迁移的基本格局和变化趋势。主要结论是:2000年以来,终身迁移人口总量快速增加,但相对水平依然不高,并且增加较快的是省内迁移,省外迁移增速较慢;终身迁移呈多极分散趋势,但又存有明显的近邻地区高度集中之特征。2015年为跨省期间迁移的拐点,此前的增加趋势随后出现了逆转;中部地区人口大量迁出、东南沿海人口大量迁入的基本格局几十年没有变,但迁出地、迁入地的上位集中随时间推移而变化,迁出、迁入分别在2000年、2005年通过了由增加变为减少的拐点。人户分离人口不断增多,占总人口的比例也不断上升。全国所有省区市的人户分离人口占常住人口比例均有所上升,地区间的差距也在缩小。北京、天津、上海三大直辖市以及东南沿海地区的人户分离现象非常普遍,到了异常的高水平。人户分离人口的年龄与迁移原因之间存有高度的选择性:前劳动力成分的相对水平逐渐上升,但依旧较低;劳动力成分、后劳动力成分均呈现了Rogers模型所描绘的变化趋势。总之,地区间人口迁移带有明显的选择性和规则性,但也表现出户籍制度下的中国特色,社会的开放程度还有待进一步提高。此外,文章还就迁移研究的规范性、普查数据的汇总方法等提出了意见。

This paper defines inter-regional migration based on birthplace,permanent residence five years ago and household registration place as“lifetime migration”,“recent migration”and“temporary migration”respectively.Based on their attributes and characteristics,this paper quantitatively analyzes the basic structure and changing trends of inter-regional migration in China in the last four decades.The results are as follows:(1)Since 2000,the total number of lifetime migrants has increased rapidly,but the relative level is still not high.Meanwhile,the migration within the province has increased rapidly,while the migration between the provinces has a slow growth rate.Lifetime migration shows a trend of multipolar dispersion,but which also has obvious characteristics of high concentration in neighboring areas.(2)2015 was the inflection point of inter-provincial migration,and the previous increasing trend has subsequently reversed.The basic pattern of mass out-migration in the central region and mass in-migration in the southeast coast has not changed for decades,but the upper concentration of migrants in major origin and destination has changed over time.Both of them have passed the turning point from rising to falling in 2000 and 2005 respectively.(3)The population of temporary migration separated from households is increasing,and its proportion in the total population is also rising.In all provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities,this proportion has increased,and the gap among them is also narrowing.In the three municipalities directly under the central government(Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai)and the southeast coastal areas,the separation of people and households is very common to an unusually high level.There is a high degree of selectivity between the age of migrants and the reasons for migration:The relative level of pre-labor force component gradually increases but remains low.Both labor force and post-labor force component shows the changing trend described by Rogers Model.In short,inter-regional migration has obvious selectivity and regularity,but which also shows Chinese characteristics under the hukou system,requiring further improvement in the degree of social openness.This paper also puts forward some suggestions on the standardization of migration studies and the method of summarizing population census data.