2004―2020年中国肝癌死亡率时间趋势分析

Analysis for the time trends of hepatoma mortality in China from 2004 to 2020

目的分析2004―2020年中国肝癌标准化死亡率及其变化趋势,为肝癌防治策略与措施的制定提供参考。方法利用国家卫生健康委员会统计信息中心发布的中国卫生健康统计年鉴,提取2004―2020年肝癌疾病死亡率数据并计算标化死亡率,使用Joinpoint回归模型分析不同地区、不同年龄段人群肝癌疾病死亡标化率变化趋势。结果2004―2020年中国居民肝癌标化死亡率结果显示,农村居民肝癌标化死亡率高于城市居民,男性肝癌标化死亡率高于女性。Joinpoint回归结果表明,2004―2020年城市居民肝癌标化死亡率[年平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)=-2.38%,P<0.001]低于农村居民(AAPC=-2.41%,P<0.001);男性年下降速度均低于女性。城市居民肝癌标化死亡率在20~<50岁、55~<60岁、70~<85岁逐年下降;农村居民肝癌标化死亡率在25~<50岁、60~<65岁、70~<80岁逐年下降。结论2004―2020年中国肝癌死亡率整体呈下降趋势,标化死亡率在性别、年龄和地区方面仍存在差异。

Objective To analyze the standardized mortality rate of hepatoma and its trend variation among the Chinese population from 2004 to 2020,in order to provide a basis for formulating prevention and treatment strategies of hepatoma.Methods Mortality data were obtained from the the statistical information center of the National Health Commission.We extracted the mortality data of hepatoma from 2004 to 2020 and calculated the standardized mortality.The trend variation of standardized mortality of hepatoma in different regions and different age groups was compared by joinpoint model regression analysis.Results The standardized mortality rate of hepatoma among Chinese residents from 2004 to 2020 revealed that the rate was higher among rural residents compared to urban residents,and higher in males compared to females.The results of joinpoint regression showed that the standardized mortality of hepatoma in urban residents[average annual percent change(AAPC)=-2.38%,P<0.001]was lower than that in rural residents(AAPC=-2.41%,P<0.001);The annual decline rate of males was lower than that of females.The standardized mortality rate of hepatoma among urban residents aged 20-<50,55-<60 and 70-<85 showed a year⁃on⁃year decrease.In contrast,the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer among rural residents aged 25-<50,60-<65 and 70-<80 decreased year⁃on⁃year.Conclusions The overall mortality rate of liver cancer in China showed a downward trend from 2004 to 2020.However,disparities persist across gender,age,and region.