太湖流域片干旱灾害风险区划研究及对策建议

Study on the zoning of drought disasters risk in Taihu Basin and its corresponding measures

太湖流域片(含太湖流域及东南诸河区)地处我国东南沿海,河湖水系发达,地形差异较大。为分析流域片干旱灾害风险分布情况,基于县(区)级行政区干旱灾害风险评估成果,采用干旱灾害风险度R值计算和城镇供水水源安全度评估等方法,对农业、人饮、城镇等分类风险进行分析,并综合考虑农业、人饮、城镇的风险等级,确定干旱灾害综合风险。结果表明,流域片干旱灾害综合风险高或中高风险区占比7.3%,中风险区占比16.4%,中低或低风险区占比76.3%,其中高或中高风险区主要集中在浙江省金衢盆地和丽水碧湖盆地等内陆盆地、沿海岛屿,以及福建省沿海突出部、半岛或岛屿地区,与历史旱情基本吻合。在此基础上,从节约用水、完善抗旱工程措施和降低干旱潜在风险等方面提出了应对干旱灾害风险的对策建议。

Taihu Basin area(including Taihu Basin and Southeast Rivers areas)is located in the southeast coast of China,with developed river and lake systems and large topographic differences.In order to analyze the distribution of drought disaster risk in Taihu Basin area,based on the results of drought disaster risk assessment in county(district)level administrative regions,methods such as calculating the R value of drought disaster risk and evaluating the safety of urban water supply sources are used to analyze the classification risks of agriculture drought,drinking water difficulty and urban drought.The comprehensive risk level of drought disaster is determined by comprehensively considering the risk levels of agriculture drought,drinking water difficulty and urban drought.The results show that the comprehensive risk of drought disasters in Taihu Basin area is 7.3%in high/medium high risk areas,16.4%in medium risk areas,and 76.3%in medium low/low risk areas.High and medium high risk areas are mainly concentrated in coastal islands and inland basins such as the Jinqu Basin and Lishui Bihu Basin in Zhejiang Province,and coastal protrusions,peninsulas,or island areas in Fujian Province,which are basically consistent with historical drought conditions.On this basis,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to address the risks of drought disasters from the perspectives of water saving,improving drought resistance engineering measures,and reducing potential risks of drought.