基于F-SEM的油气长输管道工程施工风险管理成熟度研究

Research on the Maturity of Construction Risk Management of Oil and Gas Long-distance Pipeline Engineering Based on F-SEM

油气长输管道工程作为国家生命线的重要组成部分,其施工具有作业线路长、风险大等特点。本文基于能力成熟度模型,针对油气长输管道施工风险管理成熟度研究有助于企业对风险管理的评价与提升,运用结构方程模型等方法将成熟度理论引入到油气长输管道施工风险管理领域中,借鉴OPM3模型的结构模式和CMM模型的主体模式,构建包含关键风险因素、风险管理过程和成熟度等级三个维度的成熟度模型。然后运用spss25.0软件对模型进行信度和效度检验,在此基础上,利用AMOS21.0软件对样本数据与模型的拟合程度进行分析,根据分析结果,得出油气长输管道施工风险管理成熟度的持续改进建议。最后以某管道工程建设施工项目为例,运用模糊综合评价法进行案例分析,证明该模型用于评价油气长输管道施工风险管理成熟度的可行性与有效性。

As an important part of the national lifeline,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline project has the characteristics of many field operations,long lines,large regional spans,and many natural obstacles.It faces a large number of uncertain factors,including weather factors,geographical terrain,and construction participants.These factors will affect the construction progress and quality to a certain extent and increase the risks borne by the construction party.Therefore,in order to effectively control and manage accidents,it is necessary to do a good job in pipeline construction risk management,so as to provide sufficient guarantee for the quality of long-distance pipeline construction,the safety of construction personnel and the smooth progress of the later stage of the project.However,the current research on the risk management of long-distance oil and gas pipeline construction mostly focuses on the specific content,influencing factors and measures of management.There is no objective understanding of the relationship between the influencing factors of risk management and the maturity of management level,especially the weak links and promotion strategies of risk management ability of long-distance oil and gas pipeline construction.Based on this and the classical capability maturity model,this paper introduces the maturity theory into the field of risk management of long-distance oil and gas pipeline construction by using the structural equation model and other methods.Based on the structural model of OPM3 model and the main model of CMM model,a maturity model including three dimensions of key risk factors,risk management process and maturity level is constructed,and an evaluation index system is established from the key risk factors,including 6 first-level indicators and 17 second-level indicators.Then spss25.0 software is used to test the reliability and validity of the model.On this basis,AMOS21.0 software is used to analyze the fitting degree of sample data and model,and the path coefficient of each factor is obtained and the index weight is calculated,so as to explore the contribution degree of different indicators to maturity.Through the above analysis,it can be determined that the influence degree of each latent variable on the risk management maturity from large to small is:Risk identification>risk analysis>summary suggestion>risk response>risk supervision>risk management planning.Among them,the risk identification factor(0.204)and risk analysis factor(0.202)have the greatest impact on maturity,indicating that in the risk management process,the identification and analysis of potential risks is very important.Only by collecting all kinds of risk events that affect the project objectives as far as possible,clarifying the types and nature of risks,and evaluating the impact of these risks on the realization of the project objectives can we better carry out follow-up management work.At the same time,through the weight analysis of each observation variable,it can be seen that the establishment of risk management process planning document(0.356),the preparation of risk identification report(0.362),the analysis of the scope and severity of risk(0.353),the implementation of risk response plan(0.523),the tracking of risk dynamic development status(0.369)and the perfection of technical reserve(0.365)have a significant impact on risk management maturity.Finally,taking a pipeline construction project as an example,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to analyze the collected data.Through calculation,the risk management maturity of the project is between the repeatable level and the managed level,which is consistent with the actual development of the industry.From a practical point of view,it is verified that the oil and gas long-distance pipeline constructed in this paper is the feasibility and effectiveness of a risk management maturity evaluation model.