我国人口老龄化的城乡差异及影响因素分析

Analysis of Urban-Rural Differences in Population Ageing and the Influencing Factors in China

人口的乡—城转移导致了老龄化城乡倒置现象,人口的单向跨区域流动也造成了我国大范围的地区年龄结构失衡,对我国的经济社会可持续发展造成威胁。基于2010—2019年内地31个省市的面板数据,以人口老龄化系数为被解释变量,分别构建固定效应和随机效应模型,从人口、经济、社会三个方面研究我国城镇、农村人口老龄化和城乡倒置现象的影响因素以及三类因素在东、中、西部地区的不同表现。结果显示,人口因素是老龄化城乡差异的直接原因,经济因素是根本原因,教育、医疗、社会保障等社会因素在城乡、区域之间影响不一。为此,政府应当增强生育支持力度以提高生育率,推动城乡一体化发展,推动农村地区的养老服务建设,并鼓励区域的联动合作,以缓解老龄化集聚地区的人口压力。

Under the urban-rural dual structure,the disparity in development between urban and rural regions has caused a significant overflow of rural residents,an aging rural population,and the phenomenon known as urban-rural inversion of population aging.The one-way cross-regional movement of people has contributed to both the rural-urban population transfer and a significant regional age structure imbalance in China,which is a danger to the country’s long-term economic and social growth.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2010 to 2019,we build fixed-effect and random-effect models with the population aging coefficients as the explanatory variables to investigate the factors that influence population aging and the phenomenon of rural-urban inversion in urban and rural areas of China,as well as the performance of the three types of factors in the eastern,central,and western regions from three perspectives:demographic,economic,and social.The results show that demographic factors are the direct cause of urban-rural differences in aging,economic factors are the root cause,and social factors such as education,medical care,and social security have different effects between urban and rural areas and regions.As a result,the government should improve fertility assistance to raise fertility rates,promote integrated urban-rural development,stimulate the creation of elder-care services in rural regions,and promote regional connectivity and collaboration.