西北地区城乡融合对农业碳排放强度的影响研究

Influence of urban-rural integration on agricultural carbon emission intensity in northwest China

基于2011—2021年我国西北5省的面板数据,采用SDM模型和门槛模型,实证探究了城乡融合对农业碳排放强度的影响机制。结果表明:城乡融合水平提升对农业碳排放强度具有显著的抑制作用,且表现出明显的空间溢出特征;经济增长在城乡融合对农业碳排放强度的影响中具有单重门槛效应,即当经济增长到一定阶段后,城乡融合对农业碳排放强度的抑制效果相对减弱;产业结构、农业发展、受灾程度、农业机械化水平等因素也均对农业排放强度具有空间溢出效应且存在着不同程度的影响。根据以上结论,本文从加强西北地区城乡融合区域协调性、制定针对性城乡融合发展战略、推动农业结构转型升级等方面提出西北地区农业低碳发展的建议。

Based on the panel data of five provinces in northwest China in 2011,this study used spatial panel data and threshold models to empirically explore the impact mechanism of urban-rural integration on agricultural carbon emission intensity.The results show that improvement in the level of urban-rural integration has a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity,with obvious spatial spillover characteristics.Economic growth has a single threshold effect in influencing urban-rural integration on agricultural carbon emission intensity.When economic growth reaches a certain stage,the inhibitory effect of urban-rural integration on agricultural carbon emission intensity is relatively weakened.Industrial structure,agricultural development,disaster degree,agricultural mechanization level,and other factors also have spatial spillover effects on agricultural emission intensity and varying degrees of impact.Based on these findings,some suggestions concerning the development of low-carbon agriculture in northwest China are offered from the perspective of strengthening the regional coordination of urban-rural integration,formulating the development strategy of urban-rural integration,and promoting the transformation and upgrading of agricultural structure.