“双碳”目标下中国电力市场化改革效果与福利研究——基于超越对数成本函数模型的面板数据实证分析

Research on Effect and Welfare of China's Electricity Marketization Reform under"Double Carbon"Goal-Empirical Analysis of Panel Data Based on Transcendent Logarithmic Cost Function Model

“双碳”目标的最终实现与电力市场化改革不可分割,两者共同目标是提升社会福利水平。以准自然实验的面板数据实证分析为基础,从微观企业数据出发,建立超越对数成本函数模型,辅以社会福利图形测度方法,对发电行业的垄断势力及其影响的社会福利无谓损失进行了回归拟合后的数值测度。结果表明:我国电力市场化改革的效果在发电行业取得了垄断势力阶段性持续向下波动的成果,但仍需赓续前行、降低垄断势力影响的同时积极调整能源结构,在改革中继续通过优化市场化机制从而实现资源配置效率与社会福利水平齐头并进,并最终为“双碳”目标的实现提供正向推进力。

The ultimate realization of the"Double Carbon"goal is inseparable from the market-oriented reform of electricity,and the common goal of both is to improve the level of social welfare.Based on the empirical analysis of panel data from quasi natural experiments and starting from micro enterprise data,a transcendental logarithmic cost function model was established,supplemented by the social welfare graph measurement method,to regress and fit the monopolistic power in the power generation industry and its impact on the mean-ingless loss of social welfare.The results indicate that the effectiveness of China's electricity market-oriented reform has achieved periodic downward fluctuations of monopoly power in the power generation industry,but it is still necessary to continue to move forward,reduce the impact of monopoly power,and actively adjust the en-ergy structure.In the reform,continue to optimize the market-oriented mechanism to achieve the efficiency of resource allocation and the level of social welfare go hand in hand,and ultimately provide a positive impetus for the realization of the"Double Carbon"goal.