教育扩大中等收入群体的初步证据

Evidences and Policy Implications on Expanding Middle-Income Group through Education

中等收入群体的规模和比重,是共同富裕实现程度的重要标志,也关系到中国能否顺利跨越中等收入陷阱、进入高收入社会。从总体、长期层面看,扩大中等收入群体战略的核心,是通过提升人力资本来提高其创造财富的能力。因此,扩大中等收入群体的决定因素在于教育。通过分享优质、公平的教育机会和教育过程,广大民众才能提高人力资本和收入能力,获得根本、可持续的共同富裕。面向2035,教育工作应该如何助力扩大中等收入群体?本研究基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),呈现了中等收入者比重随最高学历的变化趋势,三大收入层次群体内部各类学历人群比例,各学历组中等收入者比重随调查年份、毕业年限的变化趋势,为中国教育培养中等收入群体的能力提供初步证据。同时利用美国家庭收入追踪调查数据(PSID),分析了1976—1982年美国中等收入群体倍增过程中,各学历组中等收入者比重的变化趋势,为实现中国中等收入群体倍增的目标提供参考。最后基于研究结果,为通过各级各类教育事业发展扩大中等收入群体的目标设计与实现路径提出了政策建议。

The size and proportion of the middle-income group is an important sign of the realization of common prosperity,and is also related to whether China can successfully overcome the middle-income trap and enter a high-income society.From the overall and long-term perspective,the core of the strategy to expand the middle-income group is to improve its ability to create wealth by enhancing the human capital of the low-income group.Therefore,the determining factor for expanding the middle-income group lies in education.It is through the sharing of quality and fair educational opportunities and processes that the general public can improve their human capital and earning capacity and realize fundamental and sustainable common prosperity.Looking towards 2035,how should education help expand the middle-income group?This study,based on data from China Family Panel Studies,presents the trend of the proportion of middle-income group changing with the highest education level,the proportion of people with various educational backgrounds within the three income groups,and the trend of the proportion of middle-income group changing with the survey year and graduation years within each education level,to provide preliminary evidence for the ability of China’s educational system to cultivate middle-income group.Meanwhile,using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics,this study shows the changing trend of the proportion of middle-income group in various educational groups during the process of doubling the middle-income group in the United States from 1976 to 1982,to provide reference for achieving the goal of doubling the middle-income group in China.Finally,based on the research results,policy implications are provided for the design and implementation of the goal to expand the middle-income group in China.