金融发展、科技创新与产业升级——基于VAR和中介效应模型的实证研究

Financial Development,Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading:Empirical Research based on VAR and Mediation Effect Model

通过构建VAR模型和中介效应模型,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、交叉相关图、脉冲响应图对中国金融发展、科技创新和产业升级的关系进行实证分析和检验。结果表明:金融发展、科技创新和产业升级三者间具有长期的协整关系,彼此间具有相互促进的作用和影响,并且三者间任一变量在其他两个变量的影响中都具有中介效应。金融发展和科技创新对产业升级以及彼此的积极影响在短期内可以体现,但产业升级对金融发展和科技创新的影响,长期比短期更为显著。此外,短期内促进产业升级对经济社会的影响并不明显,但从长远来看,促进产业升级对经济社会发展具有重要的战略意义。

By constructing the VAR model and mediating effect model,the cointegration test,Granger causality test,cross correlation map and impulse response map were used to empirically analyze and test the relationship among financial development,scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading in our country.The results show that:financial development,industrial upgrading,and technological innovation have a long-term co-integration relationship,and each has a mutually promoting effect and influence.And any variable of the three has a mediating effect in the influence of the other two variables.It is worth noting that the positive impact of financial development and technological innovation on industrial upgrading and each other can be reflected in the short term,but the impact of industrial upgrading on financial development and technological innovation is more significant in the long term than in the short term,the impact of promoting industrial upgrading on the economy and society in the short term may not be obvious,but in the long run,promoting industrial upgrading has important strategic significance to the economy and society.