绿色发展视角下广州市碳排放量趋势预测及减排对策

Carbon Emission Trend Prediction and Emission Reduction Countermeasures of Guangzhou from Perspective of Green Development

主要对广州市碳排放预测问题进行了探讨,同时根据预测结果提出合理性建议。以人口规模、城镇化率、人均GDP、产业结构指数、能源强度、能源结构为自变量,通过建立GM(1,1)预测模型和多元线性回归预测模型,借助Matlab软件对碳排放量和影响因素数据进行模拟与预测,接着应用灰色关联度分析法求得影响因素的重要性排序,结果为:人口规模>能源结构>能源强度>产业结构指数>城镇化率>人均GDP。最后根据排序,提出一些减排对策。

The carbon emission prediction of Guangzhou was mainly focused on,and reasonable suggestions according to the prediction results were put forward.Based on population size,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,industrial structure index,energy intensity and energy structure,through the establishment of GM(1,1)prediction model and multiple linear regression prediction model,Matlab software was used to simulate and forecast carbon emissions and influencing factor data,and then the importance ranking of influencing factors was obtained by using grey relational analysis method.The results were as follows:population size>energy structure>energy intensity>industrial structure index>urbanization rate>per capita GDP.Finally,according to the ranking,some countermeasures were put forward to reduce carbon emissions.