平陆运河建设背景下广西对外贸易发展潜力研究

Research on the Development Potential of Guangxi’s Foreign Trade in the Context of the Construction of the Pinglu Canal

在高标准高质量加快平陆运河建设背景下,广西对外贸易发展迎来巨大发展机遇。首先,本文基于广西对外贸易发展现状,建立了对外贸易发展潜力评价指标矩阵,采用广西2000—2020年的面板数据,结合因子分析法和主成分分析法,发现国内外贸易环境、贸易条件和贸易基础设施是影响广西外贸发展的主要影响因子。其次,通过三个主因子权重计算广西对外贸易潜力综合指数。最后,本文通过SPSS构建ARIMA模型,对广西外贸潜力综合指数做回归分析,结果显示广西未来十年外贸发展潜力巨大。为进一步提高广西外贸发展潜力,本文提出广西外贸潜力的释放需要政府的政策支持和配套的外贸发展监督管理措施;加快西部陆海新通道的基础设施建设,降低西部地区外贸的运输和贸易成本,提高贸易效率;加快产业结构升级和外贸商品结构调整;企业要善于抓住政策机遇,顺应时代变化等措施,以供参考。

With the accelerated construction of the Pinglu Canal in high standards and high quality,the development of foreign trade in Guangxi has ushered in great development opportunities.Firstly,based on the current situation of foreign trade development in Guangxi,this paper establishes the evaluation index matrix of foreign trade's development potential,adopts the panel data of Guangxi from 2000 to 2020,combines the factor analysis method and the principal component analysis(PCA)method,and finds that domestic and foreign trade environment,trade conditions and trade infrastructure are the main influencing factors of the development of foreign trade in Guangxi.Secondly,in this paper,the composite index of Guangxi's foreign trade potential is calculated through the weights of the three main factors.F inally,the ARIMA model is constructed through SPSS to do regression analysis on the composite index of Guangxi's foreign trade potential The results show that Guangxi has great potential for foreign trade development in the next ten years.To further improve the development potential of Guangxi's foreign trade,it is proposed that the release of Guangxi's foreign trade potential needs the government's policy support and supporting supervisory and management measures for the development of foreign trade;solutions to accelerating the infrastructure construction of the new western land-sea corridors,lowering the transport and trade costs of foreign trade in western regions,and improving the efficiency of trade;accelerating the upgrading of the industrial structure and the adjustment of the structure of foreign trade commodities,are necessary;enterprises should be adept at seizing opportunities of policies and adapting to the changes of the times,etc.,for reference.