双碳目标下辽宁省金融发展对碳减排的影响研究——基于辽宁省地级市十年数据的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Financial Development on Carbon Emission Reduction in Liaoning Province under the Goals of Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peak——An Empirical Analysis Based on Ten-year Data of Liaoning’s Prefecture-level Cities

当前,我国正处于经济转型升级的重要阶段,同时面临发展低碳经济、推动节能减排的国内外压力,如何平衡好经济社会发展和生态环境保护,是当今我国面临的现实挑战。金融发展被认为是现代经济发展的核心指标,因此需要厘清金融发展与碳排放的关系。基于2012—2021年辽宁省所有地级市的面板数据,本文建立环境影响评估模型改良下的多元回归模型,通过系统GMM模型分析,从金融机构贷款余额占GDP比重、城乡居民储蓄余额占GDP比重两个角度对金融发展水平进行测度,探讨辽宁省金融发展对碳排放的影响。实证研究表明:在控制了人均GDP和其他变量后,提升辽宁省地级市金融发展水平对碳减排起促进作用,但当前辽宁省处于环境库兹涅茨理论倒U型的初期阶段,即经济发展带来更高的碳排放,且并未进入碳排放下降的拐点,金融发展和经济发展还存在不同步等问题。因此,本文建议强化各地级市金融机构对地方经济的支撑作用,发展绿色金融,推动辽宁省区域信息共享与合作。

China is currently in an important stage of economic transformation and upgrading while facing domestic and international pressures to develop a low-carbon economy and promote energy conservation and emission reduction.How to balance economic and social development and ecological and environmental protection is a realistic challenge facing China today.Financial development is considered to be a core indicator of modem economic development,so the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions needs to be clarified.Based on the panel data of all prefecture-level cities in Liaoning province from 2012 to 2021,this paper establishes a multiple regression model under the improvement of the environmental impact assessment model and analyzes the financial development level from the perspectives of the loan balance of financial institutions as a proportion of GDP,and the savings balance of urban and rural residents as a proportion of GDP through a systematic GMM model to explore the impacts of financial development on carbon emissions in Liaoning Province.The empirical study shows that after controlling the GDP per capita and other variables,improving the fnancial development of prefectur-level cities in Liaoning Province currently promotes carbon emission reduction,but Liaoning Province is currently in the early stage of the inverted U-shape of the Environmental Kuznets Theory,ie.,the economic development has brought about higher carbon emissions,and has not yet entered the point of the decline of carbon emissions,and there is still the problem of the incoordination between financial development and economic development.Therefore,efforts should be made to strengthen the supporting role of financial institutions in each prefecture-level city to the local economy,develop green fnance,and promote regional information sharing and cooperation in Liaoning Province.