基于动态GTAP模型的中俄自由贸易区贸易效应模拟分析

Analysis of the Simulation of Trade Effects of China-Russia Free Trade Area Based on the Dynamic GTAP Model

俄罗斯与中国具有地缘优势,近年来,中俄双边贸易额呈增长态势,中俄自由贸易区的建立,将有助于加深两国经贸合作和进一步开发两国贸易潜力。本文运用动态GTAP模型对中俄自由贸易区的贸易效应进行模拟分析。结果显示,关税降低和技术性贸易壁垒的降低均会给两国经贸带来有利条件;与关税降低相比,技术性贸易壁垒的降低对中俄经贸发展更有利;中俄两国产业竞争力和所受影响也不同,技术性贸易壁垒对中俄能源贸易的促进作用显著。总体来看,技术性贸易壁垒的降低有利于中国和俄罗斯的贸易和经济发展,因此本文认为应积极推进中俄间技术性贸易壁垒的降低,灵活地制定相关产业政策,积极扩大双方贸易,仅供参考。

Russia and China have geographic advantages.In recent years,the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia has been growing,and the establishment of a China-Russia free trade zone will help deepen the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries and further develop the trade potential of the two sides.This paper uses the dynamic GTAP model to simulate and analyze the trade effects of the China-Russia free trade zone.The results show that the reduction of tariffs and technical barriers to trade will provide favorable conditions for the economy and trade between the two countries;compared with the reduction of tariffs,the reduction of technical barriers to trade is more favorable to the development of China-Russia economic and trade;the industries of China and Russia are affected differently,and the technical barriers to trade have a significant impact on the promotion of energy trade between China and Russia.Overall,the reduction of technical trade barriers is favorable to the trade and economic development of China and Russia,so it is proposed that the reduction of technical trade barriers between China and Russia should be actively promoted;flexible policies for related industries should be formulated;the bilateral trade should be actively expanded.