浙江省金华市资本市场支持区域经济发展研究

Research on Capital Markets Supporting Regional Economic Development in Jinhua City,Zhejiang Province

经济增长促进资本市场的形成和发展,反之资本市场又推动了经济增长。本文以浙江省金华市为研究对象,着重分析了金华市经济发展水平和资本市场发展情况之间的关系。本文利用金华市经济发展和资本市场的相关数据,采用单位根检验、协整检验和VAR模型,对金华市经济增长和资本市场发展的关系进行实证研究,金华市经济发展水平与债券发行份额、信用债存量余额、股票市场OPI规模、股票成交额、股票市场换手率间存在长期协整关系,金华市债券市场和股票市场的发展对经济增长在滞后3阶上均起到了促进作用。通过VAR模型和脉冲响应分析进一步证明在债券市场和股票市场中,金华市股票市场融资规模,市场流动性对金华市经济增长的促进作用大于债券市场。2000—2022年,金华市资本市场上发行债券或者股票上市时,对当地经济先起到小幅度的抑制作用,才会逐渐刺激经济的增长,而股票市场的流动性直接刺激金华市的经济增长。

Economic growth promotes the formation and development of capital markets,and in turn,capital markets promote economic growth.This paper takes Jinhua City in Zhejiang Province as the research object and focuses on analyzing the relationship between the level of economic development and the development of capital markets in Jinhua City.Using the data related to Jinhua's economic development and capital markets,the unit root test,cointegration test and VAR model are used to empirically study the relationship between economic growth and capital markets development in Jinhua.There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the level of Jinhua's economic development and the share of bond issuance,the balance of the stock of credit debt,the size of the stock market's OPI,and the turnover of the stock market.Stock market development has contributed to economic growth on the lagged 3rd order.The VAR model and impulse response analysis further prove that among the bond market and stock market;the fnancing scale of Jinhua stock market and market liquidity promote Jinhua's economic growth more than the bond market.From 2000 to 2022,the issuance of bonds or the listing of stocks in the capital markets of Jinhua City will frst play a small inhibitory effect on the local economy before gradully stimulating economic growth,while the liquidity of the stock market directly stimulates economic growth in Jinhua City.