数字贸易与制造业就业——来自中国A股上市公司的证据

Digital Trade and Manufacturing Employment—Evidence from A-share Listed Enterprises in China

基于2011—2019年中国A股制造业上市公司数据,借助跨境电子商务综合试验区建设这一准自然实验,本文建立双重差分模型研究数字贸易对制造业就业的影响。研究结果表明,政策实施显著扩大制造业的就业规模,同时也促进就业结构升级;政策实施通过促进企业转型升级、优化人力资本供给作用于制造业的就业规模和就业结构;要素密集度、出口行为、所有制性质、产业技术特征和地区资源配置效率的不同都将带来差异化影响;数字贸易进一步促进劳动收入份额的提升。研究结论从数字贸易视角丰富了对劳动者收益变动的思考,为以稳就业夯实民生工程提供了政策启示。

Cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones(CECPZs)are a significant development that demonstrates the impact of digital technology on trade.It is a new force that propels foreign trade growth and promotes high-quality development in China.Based on the data from China’s A-share listed manufacturing enterprises from 2011 to 2019,this paper establishes a difference-in-differences(DID)model to explore the impact of digital trade on manufacturing employment with the quasi-natural experiment of the establishment of CECPZs.The findings indicate that the establishment of CECPZs significantly expands the employment scale and promotes employment structure upgrading in manufacturing by promoting the transformation and upgrading of enterprises and optimizing the supply of human capital.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect varies due to factor intensity,export behaviors,ownership,industrial technology characteristics,and regional resource allocation efficiency.The core conclusions are more prominent in capital-intensive enterprises,export-oriented enterprises,and non-state-owned enterprises.The employment scale effect is more pronounced in high-tech industries and regions with high resource allocation efficiency,while the adjustment of employment structure is more prominent in low-tech industries and regions with low resource allocation efficiency.Furthermore,digital trade increases labor income share.From the perspective of digital trade,these findings remain valid after the parallel trend test and robustness tests,enhancing the understanding of the changes in labor income and providing enlightenment for stabilizing employment and safeguarding people’s well-being.On this basis,this paper proposes some targeted recommendations,such as promoting the continued establishment of CECPZs,strengthening relevant education and skills training to cultivate a professional workforce,expediting the establishment of a high-quality market system,and accelerating the construction of a modernized industrial system.The possible marginal contributions are as follows.In terms of the research perspective,this paper discusses the impact of the establishment of CECPZs on the employment scale and structure of manufacturing and expands the research on the employment effect of digital trade.In terms of identification strategies,this paper uses the exogenous shock of the establishment of CECPZs,employs a multi-period DID model to evaluate the impact of digital trade on the quantity and structure of employment,and further addresses the endogeneity through the twostage least squares(2SLS)method,to ensure the validity of the test results.In terms of research value,the core conclusions provide empirical evidence for a comprehensive understanding of the employment effect of digital trade,and serve as an important supplement and extension to relevant literature.