跨越增长阵痛期:中国经济结构向高质量服务化转型

Crossing the Painful Period of Growth:The High-quality Servitization Transformation of China’s Economic Structure

本文再次验证“结构性减速”在中国的成立性,指出中国经济“服务化”的“被动”属性,并阐述“被动服务化”的特征事实及后果,最后探索数字经济助推中国经济高质量服务化的可能路径。研究表明,2012年之前,中国经济处于“去农业化”阶段,自2012年起,正式进入“服务化”阶段,但这种“服务化”是一种建立在制造业“未高先衰”上的“被动服务化”;此轮中国经济增速放缓的主要原因是“被动服务化”引致的“结构性减速”,而非全要素生产率的大幅下降;生产要素被迫流入服务业尤其是生活性服务业,可能导致中国服务业低端蔓延和制造业“技术-效率”升级路径断裂;“生产率”是高质量发展的关键,数字经济推动中国经济结构高质量服务化至少要经历三个阶段。

This paper once again verifies the validity of“structural deceleration”in China,points out the“passive”attribute of“servitization”in China's economy,expounds the characteristic facts and consequences of“forced servitization”,and finally explores the possible path of digital economy to promote high-quality service-oriented in China's economy.The research shows that before 2012,China's economy was in the stage of“de-agriculture”,and since 2012,it has officially entered the stage of“servitization”,but this“servitization”is more embodied as“forced servitization”based on the“decline before the rise”of the manufacturing industry.The main reason for the slowdown of China's economic growth is the“structural deceleration”caused by“forced servitization”,rather than the sharp decline in total factor productivity.Production factors are forced to flow into the service industry,especially the life service industry,which may lead to the low-end development of China's service industry and the disruption of the“technology-efficiency”upgrading path of the manufacturing industry.“Productivity”is the key to high-quality development,and the digital economy must go through at least three stages to promote the high-quality service of China's economic structure.