央行言辞沟通与企业资本结构动态调整

Central Bank’s Verbal Communication and Dynamic Adjustment of Corporate Capital Structure

随着预期管理思潮的形成,央行沟通作为新型货币政策工具,在稳预期、调结构和防风险等方面的作用逐渐凸显。本文利用2007年第一季度到2021年第二季度数据,探究了央行言辞沟通对企业资本结构动态调整的影响。结论显示,央行宽松性言辞沟通会促进企业资本结构动态调整,且上述效应仅在言辞行动方向一致和预期管理关注度较高时显著;异质性分析结果发现,央行言辞沟通对资本结构的正向影响在信息透明度和分析师关注度较高、公司治理效率和股权制衡度较高的企业中更为显著;机制分析表明,央行言辞沟通会通过稳定外部投资者情绪、抑制“短贷长投”和缓解融资约束渠道作用于企业资本结构调整速度。本文为厘清央行沟通对微观企业投融资行为机制的影响提供了新的研究视角,对促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。

With the formation of expectations management thoughts,central bank communication has gradually played a prominent role in stabilizing expectations,adjusting structure and preventing risks.Using data from the first quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2021,this paper explores the impact of central bank's verbal communication on dynamic adjustment of corporate capital structure.Our findings show that the loose verbal communication of central bank will promote dynamic adjustment of corporate capital structure,and the above effect is only significant in the period where the direction of verbal and action communication is consistent and the expected management attention is high.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the positive impact of central bank verbal communication on corporate capital structure is more significant in corporates with high information transparency and analyst concern,and high corporate governance efficiency and equity balance degree.Mechanism analysis shows that central bank verbal communication will impact the speed of corporate capital structure adjustment by stabilizing external investors sentiment,inhibiting“short-term loans used as long-term investment”and alleviating financing constraints.This study provides a new research perspective to clarify the impact of central bank communication on the micro enterprises'investment and financing behavior,and has important significance for promoting high-quality economic development.