基于STIRPAT模型的建筑能耗情景分析

Scenario Analysis of Building Energy Consumption Based on STIRPAT Model

科学预测中国建筑全寿命周期能耗对于实现碳达峰、碳中和具有重要意义。通过分析提取中国建筑全寿命周期能耗的关键影响因素,基于STIRPAT模型对不同情景下中国全寿命周期能耗情况进行预测。结果表明,国内生产总值对建筑全寿命周期能耗的影响程度最大,约为27.1%;节能情景下中国建筑全寿命周期能耗在2025年和2030年分别达到31.21亿t标准煤和42.72亿t标准煤,较悲观情景下分别下降17.9%与23.4%,具有十分可观的节能潜力。

Scientific prediction of the life cycle energy consumption of buildings in China is of great significance to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.This paper analyzes and extracts the key influencing factors of China's building life cycle energy consumption,and predicts China's life cycle energy consumption under different scenarios based on the STIRPAT model.The results show that the gross domestic product has the greatest impact on the life cycle energy consumption of buildings,at about 27.1%.Under the energy-saving scenario,the life cycle energy consumption of buildings in China will reach 3.121 billion tons of standard coal and 4.272 billion tons in 2025 and 2030,a decrease of 17.9%and 23.4%,respectively.This has a very considerable energy saving potential compared with the pessimistic scenario.