基于风险特征化的社会安全事件风险评估研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Social Security Incidents Based on Risk Characterization

当前我国面临严峻复杂的国际形势和接踵而至的巨大风险挑战,对社会安全事件风险进行分析、评估是明确当前社会安全风险、科学实施社会治理的重要环节。从实证研究的角度出发,结合国内社会安全事件的现状,选取具有一定代表性的社会安全事件作为研究对象,借鉴美国国土安全风险特征化方法构建社会安全事件风险特征化指标体系,细化风险评估的流程并实施社会安全事件风险评估。实证研究表明,基于风险特征化的社会安全事件风险评估能够从量化评估的角度明确社会安全事件的风险态势,明确社会安全事件的风险评估流程并实施社会安全事件综合风险评估确有必要。据此构建社会安全事件风险评估框架,为公安机关明确社会安全事件关键风险及其控制点、进行中长期战略规划提供参考。

At present,Our Country is facing the severe and complex international situation and the huge risks and challenges that follow.The analysis and assessment of the risks of social security events is an important link to clarify the current social security risks and scientific social governance.The risk assessment process starts from the perspective of empirical research,considers the difficulty of obtaining open-source data,selects representative social security events as the research object,draws inspiration from the homeland security risk characterization method of U.S.to construct a social security event risk characterization indicator system,refines the risk assessment process,and implements risk assessment of social security incidents.The empirical research shows that it is necessary to clarify the risk assessment process for social security incidents and implement a comprehensive risk assessment for social security incidents.Finally,a comprehensive risk assessment process and framework for social security incidents was constructed,which provides reference for public security organs to clarify key risks and control points of risks,and to carry out medium-long term strategic planning.