路在何方:数字失能对超龄农民工就业关系的影响探究——基于机器学习的经验证据

Where the Road Leads:An Exploration of the Impact ofDigital Disability on the Employment Relationshipof Overage Migrant Workers——Empirical Evidence based on Machine Learning

实现数字赋能与就业改善的协同互补,是统筹老龄化应对和加快数字经济发展的重要现实问题。本研究采用中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)微观数据,通过数字融入的长远视角构建数字失能指标,科学验证了数字失能对超龄农民工(55—65周岁)的就业意愿及就业质量的经济影响。研究发现,从网络使用的接入或频率维度,考察数字经济发展对劳动力市场的变化结果存在较大的偏误性,网络使用对超龄农民工群体的就业影响与以往预期不符。互联网的可用性虽然能够提高工作搜索,但并不一定可以转换成工作机会。而数字失能则显著限制了超龄农民工群体的就业意愿,但却对超龄农民工的就业质量影响并不明显。同伴效应在其中起到了显著的调节作用。使用随机森林方法进行预测后,上述研究结论并未发生较大改变。本研究从数字失能视角切入,系统性探索了超龄农民工这一特殊群体的就业转型道路,为不断凝练并充实积极应对人口老龄化的“中国方案”体系提供了政策启示与经验支持。

Achieving synergy and complementarity between digital empowerment and employment improvement is an important practical issue to integrate aging response and accelerate the development of digital economy.This study uses micro data from the China Labor Force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)to construct digital disempowerment indicators through a long-term perspective of digital inclusion,and scientifically verifies the economic impact of digital disempowerment on the employment intentions and employment quality of over-aged migrant workers(55 to 65 years old).The study found that the results of examining the changes in the labor market due to the development of the digital economy in terms of the access or frequency dimension of Internet use were highly biased,and the employment impact of Internet use on the over-age migrant worker group was not consistent with previous expectations.Internet availability,while improving job search,does not necessarily translate into job opportunities.Digital disempowerment,on the other hand,significantly limits the employment intentions of the overage migrant worker group,but has no significant impact on the quality of employment of overage migrant workers.The peer effect played a significant moderating role in this.The above findings did not change significantly after using the random forest method for prediction.This study systematically explores the employment transition path of the special group of over-aged migrant workers from the perspective of digital disempowerment,and provides policy inspiration and empirical support for the continuous refinement and enrichment of the"Chinese solution"system to actively cope with population aging.