海南省2013—2022年传染病类突发公共卫生事件现状与趋势分析

Analysis of the current situation and trend of infectious disease public health emergencies in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022

目的了解海南省2013—2022年传染病类突发公共卫生事件的基本发展现状,分析事件分布及特征,为海南省研究制定经济健康的发展规划政策、卫生保障政策和传染病防控工作策略方案提供重要科学参考依据。方法收集海南省2013—2022年报告的传染病类突发公共卫生事件的相关统计数据,通过采用描述性数据统计分析方法对事件情况进行现状分析。采用整合移动平均自回归模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model,ARIMA)对海南省2023—2025年传染病类突发公共卫生事件报告的事件数进行预测。结果2013—2022年,海南省累计报告482起突发公共卫生事件,其中传染病类突发公共卫生事件报告426起,占88.38%,累计报告的发病人数有8876例,罹患率为0.61%,死亡人数8例,病死率为0.09%。传染病类突发公共卫生事件主要为未分级事件和一般事件,分别占69.25%、29.58%。病种主要以新型冠状病毒感染、水痘、手足口病为主,分别占45.07%、15.49%、11.97%;从时间分布上,报告起数随着时间变化呈现上升趋势,2021年有所下降,报告的事件数主要有3个高峰期,分别为4月、8月及12月,共报告了220起;从地区分布上,主要报告的市县为海口市、万宁市和文昌市,分别占27.46%、19.25%和9.86%;从场所分布上,事件发生的场所主要为学校,占事件发生总数的42.02%。采用ARIMA(1,1,0)模型对传染病类突发公共卫生事件进行预测,结果显示2023—2025年预测结果较为平稳,无明显上升趋势,即未来3年海南省传染病类突发公共卫生事件波动幅度处于平稳状态。结论2013—2022年海南省传染病类突发公共卫生报告事件数呈现逐年增多,2021年有所下降。虽然据预测值显示传染病类突发公共卫生事件数较为平稳,无明显上升趋势,但仍然不能对疫情防控掉以轻心。海南省应继续不断加大对突发公共卫生的监测投入,提高公共疾病防控预防与疫情控制信息体系,对传染病类突发公共卫生事件疫情进行实时监测。

Objective To evaluate the basic development status of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022,analyze the distribution and characteristics of these emergencies,as to provide important scientific basis for the study and formulation of economic health development planning policies,for the health security policies and infectious disease prevention and control strategies in Hainan Province.Methods The relevant statistical data of public health emergencies involving infectious diseases reported in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 were collected,and the status quo of these emergencies was analyzed by using descriptive data statistical analysis method.The ARIMA model was used to predict the number of public health emergencies reported by infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2023 to 2025.Results From 2013 to 2022,a total of 482 public health emergencies were reported in Hainan Province,of which 426 were infectious disease public health emergencies,accounting for 88.38%,with a total of 8876 cases,an incidence rate of 0.61%,and eight deaths,a case fatality rate of 0.09%.The major public health emergencies of infectious diseases were unclassified events and general events,accounting for 69.25%and 29.58%,respectively.The main diseases were novel coronavirus infection,chickenpox and hand,foot and mouth disease,accounting for 45.07%,15.49%and 11.97%,respectively;in terms of time distribution,the number of reported incidents showed an upward trend over time,with a decline in 2021,and mainly had three peak periods,April,August and December,with a total of 220 cases reported;in terms of regional distribution,the major cities and counties reported were Haikou,Wanning and Wenchang,accounting for 27.46%,19.25%and 9.86%,respectively;in terms of location distribution,the events mainly occurred in schools,accounting for 42.02%of the total number of incidents.The ARIMA(1,1,0)model was used to predict infectious disease public health emergencies,and the results showed that the forecast state would be stable from 2023 to 2025,with no obvious upward trend,that is,the fluctuation range of public health emergencies related to infectious diseases in Hainan Province would be stable in the next three years.Conclusion The number of infectious disease public health emergencies reported in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 has increased year by year,with a decline in 2021.Although the forecast shows that public health emergencies such as infectious diseases are relatively stable with no obvious upward trend,the prevention and control of the epidemic should not be taken lightly.Hainan Province should continue to increase the investment in monitoring public health emergencies,improve the information system of public disease prevention and control,and carry out real-time monitoring of public health emergencies of infectious diseases.