甘肃省县域乡村振兴与新型城镇化耦合协调发展的时空分异特征及影响因素

Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of coupling coordinated development of rural revitalization and new urbanization at the county level in Gansu province

基于城乡统筹发展与区域协同发展研究视角,通过构建乡村振兴与新型城镇化综合评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型、LISA时间路径、LISA时空跃迁及地理加权回归模型等方法,分析2013—2019年甘肃省86个县域单元两者间耦合协调发展水平、时空分异特征及影响因素。结果表明:(1)全省县域乡村振兴与新型城镇化发展水平在空间分布上具有相似性,均呈现“西北高、东南低”的发展态势。其中,河西地区乡村振兴与新型城镇化发展水平最高。河西地区乡村振兴与新型城镇化耦合协调度处于全省首位,陇中地区与陇东南地区耦合协调度相对较低。全省各县域在基本失调类型和基本协调类型中乡村振兴发展滞后型均占大多数,不存在新型城镇化发展滞后型。(2)县域耦合协调度空间格局具有一定的平稳性,在局部空间依赖方向和空间增长过程中具有波动性较弱特征,受周边邻近城市溢出效应或虹吸效应相对较弱。县域自身耦合协调度受相邻县域的溢出效应影响程度较小,整体呈现出的高增长或低增长趋势较为明显。耦合协调度的局部空间关联格局保持在一定的稳定态势,多数县域未发生跃迁,空间格局呈现出一定的转移惰性与路径依赖特征。(3)县域乡村振兴与新型城镇化耦合协调度影响因素在空间上差异较大,城乡收入差距、城乡消费差距、产业二元性水平不利于两者耦合协调度的提升,经济发展水平、政府调控水平对两者耦合协调度的提升具有促进作用。

Based on the research perspective of urban-rural integrated development and regional coordinated development,by constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system for rural revitalization and new urbanization,using the coupled coordination degree model,LISA time path,LISA spatiotemporal leap,and geographically weighted regression model,this paper analyzed the coupling coordinated development level,spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of 86 county units in Gansu province from 2013 to 2019.The results show that:(1)During the study period,the spatial distribution of county-level rural revitalization and new urbanization is similar,showing a development pattern of"high in the northwest and low in the southeast".Among them,the development level of rural revitalization and new urbanization in the Hexi region is the highest.The coupling coordination of rural revitalization and new urbanization in the Hexi region is the highest,while the coupling coordination of the Central and Southeastern Gansu regions is relatively low.Among the basic imbalance types and basic coordination types,the rural revitalization development backward type accounts for the majority in all the county units of Gansu,and there is no new urbanization development backward type.(2)The spatial pattern of the coupling coordination degree at the county level has a certain degree of smoothness.It has weak volatility in the local spatial dependence direction and spatial growth process and is relatively weak by neighboring cities'spillover effect or siphon effect.The coupling coordination degree at the county level is less affected by the spillover effect of adjacent county units,and the overall trend of high or low growth is more prominent.The local spatial correlation pattern of the coupling coordination degree is kept in a stable situation,and most counties have not experienced any transition;the spatial pattern shows certain characteristics of transfer inertia and path dependence.(3)The influencing factors of the coupling coordination of rural revitalization and new urbanization at the county level are different in space.The urban-rural income gap,urban-rural consumption gap,and industrial duality are not conducive to improving the coupling coordination between the two.On the other hand,the level of economic development and government regulation can improve the coupling coordination between the two.