不确定性冲击下政府采购的价值效应

The Value of Government Procurement under the Uncertainty Shock

本文利用中国政府采购网公布的政府采购数据,基于新冠疫情这一外生事件,分析政府采购供应商企业在面临不确定性冲击时短期和长期的价值表现。研究发现,新冠疫情这一外生事件对政府采购具有显著的价值效应,短期表现为政府采购供应商公司的累计超额收益率显著高于非政府采购供应商公司,长期表现为政府采购供应商公司价值显著高于非政府采购公司。这一效应在产品市场竞争程度更高、融资约束更大、规模更小和所在行业受疫情冲击更大的公司中更为显著。分析其作用机制发现,政府采购主要通过为供应商公司带来稳定的需求和间接的信用背书,使其拥有更高的销售收入、更高的资产收益率、更低的信贷成本和更多的商业信用,进而降低了公司对不确定性冲击的敏感度,缓解了不确定性冲击下总需求下降、预期转弱所产生的负面影响,提升公司价值。另外,本文还发现政府采购的价值效应存在溢出效应。本文为揭示政府采购在不确定性冲击中的有益价值提供了经验证据,并对如何更好地发挥政府作用以应对不确定性冲击事件具有一定的启示作用。

Based on the government procurement data published by the China Government Procurement Network,this paper analyzes whether government procurement could help enterprises resist the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Using government procurement data published on the Chinese government procurement website,this paper analyzes the short⁃term and long⁃term value performance of government product and service suppliers in the face of uncertainty shocks in the public health crisis of COVID-19.In the long run,the value of government procurement companies is significantly higher than that of non⁃government procurement ones.This effect is more pronounced in companies with more competitive product markets,greater financing constraints,of a smaller size,and in industries that are more vulnerable to epidemics.We analyzed its mechanism and found that that government procurement,mainly by bringing stable demand and indirect credit backing to suppliers,gives them higher sales revenue,higher return on assets,lower credit costs and more commercial credit,which in turn reduces the company's vulnerability to uncertainty shocks,mitigates the negative impact of lower aggregate demand and weaker expectations under uncertainty shocks,and enhances company value.This paper also finds that government procurement has spillover effects,and provides empirical evidence for revealing the beneficial effects of government procurement on firms under the uncertainty shock.Compared with previous studies,this paper is original in the following three aspects.First,from the perspective of uncertainty shock,it re⁃examines the role of indirect government intervention in the stable development of enterprises in crisis.This paper verifies from the micro level that government procurement,an indirect means of government intervention,can exert its value effect in the face of uncertainty shocks,enhance corporate resilience,stabilize corporate development,and enrich the research on how to better play the role of the government in the face of epidemic shocks.Second,based on the cleaner identification environment provided by the impact of the epidemic,this paper uses the exogenous impact of the epidemic to study how the government's direct participation in the product market affects the development of enterprises,and reveals that government procurement,an indirect government intervention,has great impact on enterprise stability.It enriches the literature on the economic consequences of government procurement.Third,it provides a new direction of thinking for how government procurement,as a market⁃oriented government intervention method,can better play a relief role and support the development of small and medium⁃sized enterprises under the impact of uncertainty.