市场规模优势研究:理论逻辑与前景展望

Research on the Advantage of Market Size:Theoretical Logic and Prospects

市场规模优势是大国经济发展的重要优势,并成为构建新发展格局的客观基础。市场规模优势研究源于斯密提出的“市场范围假说”,20世纪中期以来经济学家按照“市场规模优势的绩效—培育市场规模优势—发挥市场规模优势”的线索进行了长期探索:以内生经济增长理论和新贸易理论等为基础,国内外研究从内循环和外循环双视角探析市场规模优势的绩效,采用理论模型和经验数据论证技术进步、出口贸易和生产率中市场规模效应的存在性及作用机制。在此基础上,围绕中国经济增长和高质量发展的典型事实,中国学者开辟了研究市场规模优势的新道路,即探索形成强大国内市场和发挥超大规模市场优势的机制,培育中国经济增长新优势和国际经济竞争新优势。围绕构建新发展格局进行深入分析和理论拓展,在此基础上的理论创新可能成为中国经济学研究的边际贡献。

The big market size is an important advantage for the economic development of large countries.Giving full play to the advantage of market size is the starting point and foothold for building a“dual circulation”and creating new advantages for economic development.Systematically combing the theoretical logic and basic views of the research on the advantage of market size will provide an important theoretical reference for us to deeply understand the dual circulation and new advantages for economic growth.The study of market size advantage originated from Smith's“market scope hypothesis.”Since the mid-20th century,economists have conducted long⁃term explorations based on the clues of“the performance of market size advantage⁃cultivating market size advantage⁃exerting market size advantage.”Based on the endogenous economic growth theory and the new trade theory,studies have explored the performance of market size advantage from both internal and external circulation perspectives,using theoretical models and empirical data to demonstrate the existence and mechanism of market size effects on technological progress,export,and productivity.These studies not only enrich the theoretical foundation and empirical support of the market size advantage,but also outline the development context of the market size advantage theory.On this basis,with the expansion of Chinese economy and market,and centering on the typical facts of China's economic growth and high⁃quality development,Chinese scholars have opened up a new way to study the advantages of market size,that is,to explore the mechanism for cultivating and strengthening the large domestic market and giving play to the advantages of the super large market.First,in the process of seeking the power of economic growth,explore ways to expand domestic demand and form a strong domestic market,thereby cultivating new economic advantages for large countries.Secondly,based on the understanding of the characteristics of national economic scale,explore the development pattern of large countries,study the formation of endogenous capabilities of large countries,and implement the globalization strategy based on domestic demand,and the path of constructing“dual circulation.”The research in the above fields has resulted in innovations in Chinese economics and made outstanding theoretical contributions to development economics.Future research may consider in⁃depth analysis and theoretical expansion centering around the construction of“dual circulation,”especially the construction of an analytical framework combining the demand side and supply side,analyzing the institutional threshold effect that affects the market size advantage,and exploring the path to cultivate new advantages for China's economic development and for international economic competition through the connection of the industrial chain,innovation chain and value chain.Theoretical innovation based on these may become marginal contribution to Chinese economic research.