企业数字化转型与出口供应链不确定性

Enterprise Digital Transformation and Export Supply Chain Uncertainty

出口供应链不确定性是阻碍中国出口增长的关键因素,本文旨在研究企业数字化转型对出口供应链不确定性的缓解作用。首先引入数字化参数和不确定性参数,构建出口供应链选择模型,理论探讨了企业数字化转型影响出口供应链不确定性的效果和原因;并基于对企业产品层面出口供应链不确定性的测度,对理论命题进行了检验。研究发现:企业数字化转型相比未转型企业显著降低了出口供应链不确定性,凸显了数字化转型对出口供应链的“稳定器”作用;数字化转型可以显著促进低不确定性的新供应链构建和降低存续供应链的不确定性,同时也会带来高不确定性的供应链退出;出口供应链的进入、再配置和退出带来的供应链重构效应是造成产品层面总出口供应链不确定性变动的主要原因,贡献率为57.14%。企业数字化转型缓解了新进入供应链对总供应链不确定性的提升作用,增强了退出供应链对总供应链不确定性的下降作用,由此带来了总供应链不确定性下降;数字化转型对出口供应链不确定性的缓解作用在出口依赖性较强和出口网络较小的企业更明显。本文研究为出口企业降低供应链不确定性提供了有效方案。

Export supply chain uncertainty(SCU)is the possibility that economic policy uncertainty would affect the normal operation of the export supply chain,and it is an important factor that threatens the security of the export supply chain of enterprises.Research on solutions to alleviate export SCU is of great significance to promote the steady growth of exports.Currently,taking digital transformation as an opportunity to ensure supply chain security has received more theoretical and policy attention.This study focuses on the mitigation effect of enterprise digital transformation on export SCU.In fact,the economic policy uncertainty faced by multi-product and multi-market export enterprises has often been combined.Digital transformation may promote enterprises to“screen”different uncertain market combinations to achieve advantages and avoid disadvantages,thus reducing the overall uncertainty faced by enterprises,which is an important significance of this study.Based on the framework of the export supply chain selection model,this study introduces digital and uncertainty parameters and theoretically discusses the effect and channel of enterprises’digital transformation on export SCU.In an empirical sense,by measuring the export SCU at the product level of the enterprise,we use Chinese data from 2000 to 2015 to establish enterprises’digital transformation shock through a“quasi-natural experiment.”The research findings of this study include the following.First,compared with non-digital transformation enterprises,digital transformation enterprises significantly reduce export SCU,indicating that digitalization has a“stabilizer”effect on the export supply chain.Second,the digital transformation of enterprises can significantly promote the construction of new export supply chains with low uncertainty and reduce the uncertainty of existing export supply chains.It will also introduce high-uncertainty export supply chains.These are the reasons for reducing export SCU.Third,by dynamically decomposing the uncertainty changes in the total export supply chain,we find that the supply chain restructuring effects such as the entry,reconfiguration,and exit of the export supply chain are the main reasons for the uncertainty changes in the total export supply chain at the product level,and the contribution rate is 57.142%.The digital transformation of enterprises alleviates the effect of newly entering the supply chain on an increase in total export SCU and strengthens the effect of exiting the supply chain on the decline in total export SCU,which leads to a decrease in total export SCU.Fourth,the effect of digital transformation on the decline in export SCU is more obvious in enterprises with strong export dependence and small export networks.The contributions of this study are as follows.First,this study introduces digital and uncertainty parameters into the export supply chain search model,simulates the impact and mechanism of enterprises’digital transformation on export SCU,and constructs a theoretical framework of SCU analysis.Second,we propose a quantitative method of export SCU at the product level,providing method and data support for future academic research on export SCU.Third,we conduct a detailed study of the supply chain combination of enterprises’export products to examine the reconstruction of supply chains with different uncertainties after the adoption of digital transformation and clarify the reasons for the impact on export SCU,which is an important breakthrough in the existing literature.This study also has some policy implications.On the one hand,we must pay attention to the important role of cross-border e-commerce and various digital economic formats in coping with external risks,especially in alleviating the uncertainty of enterprise supply chains,and promote new digital formats as an important means to improve the resilience of corporate export supply chains.On the other hand,we must pay more attention to and give full play to the role of cross-border e-commerce and new digital economy formats in reconstructing supply chains,encourage enterprises to continuously emancipate their minds under the impact of economic uncertainty,and actively promote the reconstruction of existing supply chain networks.