中国区域经济韧性的时空格局特征与影响因素

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Regional Economic Resilience in China

以2008年全球金融危机为时间节点,采用Martin等的测度方法,研究了中国地市尺度上的区域经济韧性时空格局特征。基于演化经济地理学的视角,构建了区域经济韧性影响因素理论分析框架,通过多元线性回归模型对于区域经济韧性影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明:①2008—2020年,中国区域经济韧性整体表现为中西部高于东部地区和东北地区,区域经济韧性水平不断提升,但老工业基地和资源型城市明显降低,且在2015年后最为显著。②中国区域经济韧性空间相关性较强,集聚类型以高—高和低—低为主,且高—高类型区逐步向黄河以南地区拓展,低—低类型区范围呈显著扩大趋势。③抵御期和恢复期,相关多样化和非相关多样化对中国经济韧性的影响显著为正;在调整期,专业化和相关多样化的影响显著为正。④对于副省级以上城市,在抵御期和恢复期相关多样化的影响显著为正;对于资源型城市和老工业基地,在恢复期和调整期专业化的影响均显著为正,非相关多样化在恢复期和调整期的影响显著为正。对于一般城市,在抵御期专业化的影响显著为正,非相关多样化在抵御期和恢复期的影响显著为正。

Taking the global financial crisis in 2008 as the time node,using the measurement method of Martin et al,this paper studies the level of regional economic resilience on the spatial scales of cities in China.From the perspective of evolutionary economic geography,this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework for the influencing factors of regional economic resilience,and empirically studies the influencing factors of regional economic resilience through multiple linear regression model.The results show that:1)From 2008 to 2020,the overall regional economic resilience is higher in the central and western regions than that in the eastern and northeastern regions,and the level of regional economic resilience is constantly improving,but the resource-based cities and old industrial bases are obviously reduced,especially after 2015.2)The spatial correlation of China's regional economic resilience is strong.The agglomeration types are mainly high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration,and high-high agglomeration area gradually shifts to the south of the Yellow River,while the range of the low-low agglomeration area shows a significant expansion trend.3)At the periods of resistance and recovery,the related variety and the unrelated variety have a significant positive impact on China's economic resilience.At the adjustment period,the impact of specialization and related variety is significantly positive.4)At the resistance period and recovery period,the impact of related variety is significantly positive in cities which are above the sub-provincial level.For resource-based cities and old industrial bases,the impact of specialization is significantly positive at the recovery period and adjustment period,and the impact of unrelated variety is significantly positive at the recovery period and adjustment period.The impact of the specialization is significantly positive in general cities at the resistance period,and the impact of unrelated variety is significantly positive at both the resistance period and the recovery period.